LOCK OF THE WEEK IS HERE! But you gotta ask yourself 1 question…Can you trust a hamster?

Without further adieu, I give this to you…straight from fingertips of Herby Hamster himself...

"Herby Hamster - 2011/2012 individual SuperContest record ATS: 13-3-1

11-1 when picking favorites

2-2-1 when picking underdogs

I get the honor of starting off the picks for the 2012-2013 season.  As you can see, I like to pick favorites and usually try to hone in on one game.  I have 3 things I look at when picking 1 spread.

1) Quarterback Play

2) Coaching/Style of play

3) How the teams match up and what the game means to each team

My week 1 Selection is Jets -2.5.

This is an interesting line.  If Vegas thought the teams were even, the Jets should be -3.  Why is this not the spread?  I can’t answer that, but I will defend my pick.

1   1)  Both quarterbacks are inconsistent.  However, I will give the edge to the Jets because of the unknown factor of Tim Tebow(read #2)

2    2)  The Bills added superstar pass rusher Mario Williams and #1 cornerback Stephon Gilmore out of South Carolina. The defense should take great strides this year, but I don’t think these 2 additions will be a big factor in defending the Jets ground and pound game.  I know the Jets didn’t score an offensive touchdown until the 4^th preseason game, but THAT WAS THE PRESEASON!  Don’t look too much into it. Coaches run basic plays and formations so they don’t tip their hands for the regular season.Tim Tebow as the wildcat QB wasn’t shown once in the preseason.Imagine if you were the Buffalo defense coming into the game on Sunday… How do you prepare?  Tebow will be the best throwing wildcat QB the NFL has ever seen (sorry Ronnie Brown). Lastly, the Jets defense is one of the best in the league and can dominate a game.  The Jets will stack the box and beg Fitzpatrick to throw against man-to-man coverage.  The Jets have the best cover corner in the league in Darrell Revis.I’m also a fan of Antonio Cromartie, as long as the refs let him be aggressive.  The Jets will control the clock by running the football and look to hit on a long bomb or 2 on play action. The defense will be aggressive and physical which will lead to turnovers.  TAKE the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets!!!"

There you have it.  He picked SuperContest spreads at over 79% last year, and THAT is what he thinks!

Stop by tomorrow as I give to you the rest of THEBISNESS's Week 1 picks.  Also included in that post will be the ATS splits for Home/Road teams for the collection of SuperContest lines from last year AND the ATS splits for Home/Road picks by THEBISNESS last year.

*Note: ATS stands for Against The Spread