| Away | Home | Guess | SC Line |
| Cowboys | Giants | Giants -4 | Giants -3.5 |
| Dolphins | Texans | Texans -7 | Texans -13 |
| Patriots | Titans | Patriots -7 | Patriots -5.5 |
| Rams | Lions | Lions -6.5 | Lions -7 |
| Redskins | Saints | Saints -7 | Saints -7 |
| Eagles | Browns | Eagles -7 | Eagles -8.5 |
| Falcons | Chiefs | Falcons PK | Falcons -2.5 |
| Bills | Jets | Jets -3.5 | Jets -2.5 |
| Jaguars | Vikings | Vikings -3 | Vikings -3.5 |
| Colts | Bears | Bears -8.5 | Bears -9.5 |
| Seahawks | Cardinals | Cardinals -3.5 | Cards +2.5 |
| Panthers | Buccaneers | Buccaneers -2.5 | Bucs +2.5 |
| 49ers | Packers | Packers -4 | Packers -5 |
| Steelers | Broncos | Broncos -1 | Broncos -1.5 |
| Bengals | Ravens | Ravens -6 | Ravens -6.5 |
| Chargers | Raiders | Chargers -1.5 | Chargers PK |
Let's take a look at the 3 lines I totally whiffed on.
Dolphins @ Texans
The Texans are picked to be a Top 5 caliber team in the NFL this season and the Dolphins a Bottom 5 team. That right there should have told me to favor the home team by more than a touchdown. I guess I employed the "they're both NFL teams so how high can this line really get?" philosophy on this one...and I struck out. The more I thought about this line, the more I think Vegas could set it anywhere between 8.5 and 16.5 and not have to worry about getting slaughtered at the bank. You either think A) the Dolphins will have a solid gameplan and keep it close, losing by a TD or less, or maybe even win the game...C'mon, only Dolphins fans believe the Dolphins can win this game! or B) the Texans will put their veteran QB, laundry list of studs at the skill positions, and dynamite defense to work and beat the Fish by 35. I think bettors will split themselves 50/50 between these 2 schools of thought. In my opinion, you're a donkey for taking the Texans to cover such a huge number because anything can happen in the NFL, and you're crazy for thinking the Hartline-less marine mammals can keep their heads above water. Oh yeah, there's at least a decent possibility they could be without 3 projected starting lineman as well, including All Pro Jake Long. If I had to bet it, I would take the Texans -13, but I wouldn't touch this with a 15-foot SeaWorld pool mop.
Seahawks @ Cardinals
I see two teams that are roughly equal. If Vegas saw it the same way, they would give the home Cardinals a 3 point advantage. Instead, the Seahawks are slightly favored. After talking with one of the other members of THE BISNESS, I understand the line a little better. The Cards might be better off signing Ryan Leaf to a two week contract until they determine who is less shitty at QB between Kolb and Skelton. Meanwhile, Matt Flynn got PAID up in Seattle and....he isn't even going to start? Russell Wilson has been THAT IMPRESSIVE so far. I'm not buying that the Seahawks should be favored. You are still putting too much stock in a rookie QB. You just don't know how he will perform when that first big weekend comes. There's too much uncertainty in predicting this game. We'll know A LOT more in Week 3 or 4 what these teams are really capable of this year.
Panthers @ Buccaneers
I usually give Vegas the benefit of the doubt when there's a large discrepancy between my guess and their line, but I'm going to go out on a limb on this one and say they are DEAD WRONG! Cam Newton had an amazing year last year. How can anyone refute or forget that? The Buccaneers had a dogshit year last year. They were supposed to be respectable and instead were laughable. How can anyone refute or forget that? This is a classic example of the general public just assuming two teams will carry on as they did the previous year. I mean what else do they have to go off? The Panthers continued to improve, and the Buccaneers continued to decline. Don't fall into this trap. This year is a new year. Both teams have good QBs and relatively average talent around them. TAKE THE HOME TEAM, especially if you can get them as a dog.
No comments:
Post a Comment