Week 2 SuperContest Guessing of the Lines

The LVH has published the Week 2 lines for the SuperContest.  I didn’t miss as badly this week.  Week 1 lines are always tougher to guess because there’s always more uncertainty at the start of the year.  You’ve got rookies who’ve never played a meaningful snap in the NFL, you’ve got teams that made large scale changes in the offseason and it’s hard to know what to expect, and you’ve got oodles of coaching changes and you don’t know if the 1^st time head coaches have what it takes and you don’t know if the coaches that have been shopped around from team to team have brought the right system to their new towns.

 

Let’s get into my guesses, the SuperContest lines, and my opinion on the 3 games I missed the most.

 

Away	Home	Guess	SC Line
Bears	Packers	Packers -4.5	Packers -6
Chiefs	Bills	Bills -3	Bills -3
Browns	Bengals	Bengals -4	Bengals -7
Vikings	Colts	Colts -2	Colts +1
Raiders	Dolphins	Raiders -3.5	Raiders -2.5
Cards	Pats	Pats -11.5	Pats -13.5
Bucs	Giants	Giants -7	Giants -7.5
Ravens	Eagles	Eagles PK	Eagles -2.5
Saints	Panthers	Saints -3	Saints -2.5
Texans	Jags	Texans -8.5	Texans -7
Redskins	Rams	Redskins -2.5	Redskins -3
Cowboys	Seahawks	Seahawks -2	Seahawks +3
Jets	Steelers	Steelers -4	Steelers -6
Titans	Chargers	Chargers -4	Chargers -6
Lions	49ers	49ers -6.5	49ers -6.5
Broncos	Falcons	Falcons -3	Falcons -3

 

Browns @ Bengals

 

The big key here is the Browns are without their All Pro DB Joe Haden.  When I guessed this line, I wasn’t aware of this.  This line wouldn’t have been as low as -4 for the Bengals if Haden were playing, but his absence IS enough to move this line a point or 2.  If A.J. Green gets loose in that secondary, look out!  This game could get out of hand early.  Even without Haden, the Browns have a very solid defense.  Any D that can pick Vick 4 times is a legitimate D.  If they can mitigate the Dalton/Green big play potential, they can keep this game close for awhile.  Whether they can win depends on whether Weeden can weed out the woeful throws he made a week ago.  If you think the Browns can hold the Bengals scoring down in the 1^st half, and you think Weeden will perform like an average NFL quarterback, take the Browns +7.  I’m not saying this is what I would do, but this is what I would do.  That being said, I don’t have a strong opinion one way or another on this spread.

 

Vikings @ Colts

 

I thought the Colts should be a slight favorite in this game, and Vegas thinks the Vikings should be a slight favorite in this game.  It’s like picking between a horse with 3 legs and…..another horse with 3 legs.  How would you go about doing that?  You’d have to pick your horse based on which had the prettiest coat.  So which team (Vikings or Colts) has the prettiest uniforms.  And don’t be biased towards the Colts because a colt IS a horse.  That’s not the point here.  It’s like when March Madness rolls around and all these wahoos who know nothing about college basketball HAVE to fill out a bracket.  And they do it by picking the coolest mascot or the teams that wear their favorite colors.  This got out of hand…back to business.  In all seriousness, the Dwight Freeney injury report is something to watch closely.  He is currently listed as Questionable, which in the NFL generally means the player will play.  But, maybe the Colts want the Vikings to prepare for Freeney’s stellar pass rush already knowing Freeney will definitely not play.  Just like in the case of Haden, Freeney is a marquee player that can shift a spread a point or 2.  Maybe this is the reason I whiffed on this spread.  Maybe it’s not.  Like the Browns/Bengals game, I have no strong opinion on this game.  If you HAVE to pick it, take the HOME DOG!

 

Cowboys @ Seahawks

Marshawn Lynch and Sidney Rice are banged up.  I expect both to play, but I’m thinking each player will be at about 80%.  When your two best skill players are banged up, you rely more heavily on your QB to make good decisions and good plays…The Seahawks have a rookie QB who did not overachieve in Week 1.  Also, the public saw the Cowboys handle the Giants with ease last Wednesday.  I think Vegas knows a lot of people will jump on the Cowboys for this reason.  Seattle is a tough place for opponents to play, arguably the toughest of any in the NFL.  A lot of bettors and analysts were super high on the Seahawks before Week 1.  What changed?  The Seahawks had plenty of chances to win that game in Arizona last Sunday.  Say they do pull out the win and the Giants don’t lay an egg last week.  Now what would this spread be?  I think it would be Seahawks -3.  Don’t let 1 week’s results influence your overall perception of how good a team is.  We all know the Tony Romo Cowboys are more inconsistent than most teams out there.  Expect the Cowboys to be hung over after their adrenaline-packed Week 1 win over their division rival and last year’s Super Bowl winner.  And then throw in there the subsequent 11 day layoff in between games.  Has no one from the Cowboys been arrested since last Wednesday, or have I just not heard about it?  Maybe the Cowboys really ARE turning the page this year.  Maybe they are an 11-5 team.  I’M JUST NOT BUYING IT!  TAKE THE HOME DOG!