Week 3 Analysis: LVH SuperContest

What did we learn from Week 3?  EVERYTHING GOT WORSE: THE BISNESS’s record, Herby’s pick lost (guess he’s human after all), the consensus record (43.07% picked correctly this week), the replacement officials, you name it!  Home underdogs continued to crush spreads, going 5-2-1 in Week 3.  Again, we didn’t pick a single Home underdog.  There’s likely going to be 5 Home underdogs again this week.  Dear THE BISNESS, I say we just take them all and quit our individual picks.  What do you guys think?......(crickets)  We are 5-10 right now, and 1/8 of contestants are still behind us (93/745)!  I think the LVH should cancel this atrocity and refund everyone’s money.  I’m joking.  Instead of going on and on about who sucks in this contest, let’s take a look at the leaderboard for once.

 

3POINTDOG .	13
THE NUTS .	12
4 RODY .	11.5
OTIS P. DRIFTWOOD	11.5
FRANKLYN PIERCE	11.5
HIGH RROLLER STEAM.COM.	11.5
KURLY .	11.5
1ST PLACE .	11
BUSKY .	11
CLEVTA .	11
JUST A GOOD TIME!	11
THERE WILL BE BLOOD.	10.5
VLBD .	10.5
FAST EDDIE SPORTS.	10.5
MANNY MOE .	10.5
THE BETTING DOCTOR	10.5
CHECKMATE .	10.5
ANCRCHIOTS UNITED.	10.5

 

I didn’t post Top 20 because there’s 500 contestants tied for 19^th.  I’m joking.  There’s only 29.  After a 5-0 week, participating under the alias “VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM,” Dave Tuley (@ViewFromVegas) is one of those 29 tied for 19^th.  Look him up.  He does a fairly in-depth analysis of the SuperContest leaderboard from week to week.

 

Let’s take a look at the splits after Week 3

Totals
W	L	T		%
13	5	1	Home Dog	71%
12	14	1	Home Fav.	46%
14	12	1	Road Dog	54%
5	13	1	Road Fav.	29%
0	2	0	Home PK	0%
2	0	0	Road PK	100%
17	27	2	Favs	39%
27	17	2	Dogs	61%
25	19	2	Home	57%
19	25	2	Road	43%
2	2	0	PK	50%
46	46	4	ALL	50%

 

As you can see, Vegas essentially evened out the large disparity between Home favorite/Road underdog in Week 3.  Vegas must be adjusting these splits back towards the mean 1 week at a time, as the Home underdogs continue to cover SuperContest spreads at over 70%.  Is Week 4 the week that Road favorites start restoring a bit of normalcy?

 

4 teams (Buccaneers, Cardinals, Falcons, and Texans) are still perfect against SuperContest spreads after Week 3, and 3 teams (Eagles, Lions, and Saints) are winless against SuperContest spreads.  It will be interesting to see if the lines reflect Vegas’s desire, or lack thereof, to regress these 7 teams’ ATS records in Week 4.

 

Herby and Willy are no longer perfect, Freddy’s on the board, and Bucky and Peter might be getting voted off!

 

Herby Hamster	0-1-0
Willy Walrus	0-1-0
Freddy Ferret	1-0-0
Bucky Bluebird	0-1-0
Peter Penguin	0-1-0

 

Overall

Herby Hamster	2-1-0
Willy Walrus	2-1-0
Freddy Ferret	1-2-0
Bucky Bluebird	0-3-0
Peter Penguin	0-3-0

 

How did other notables pick this week?

 

THE BISNESS	1-4-0
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE	3-2-0
VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM	5-0-0
TEAM WHODID	1-3-1
SIMBOTICS	2-2-1
FEZZIK	2-2-1

Overall

VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM	10-5-0	10
TEAM WHODID	7-6-2	8
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE	7-8-0	7
SIMBOTICS	6-8-1	6.5
THE BISNESS	5-10-0	5
FEZZIK	4-10-1	4.5

 

There were 8 contestants that went 5-0 this week, and 35 that went 0-5.  WHAT?!  There are 3 contestants tied for last with 2 points, “TWO GUYS 1 BOAT,” “KDLV33,” and “KDLV42.”  Would I be correct to infer that the KDLV entries are the same guy?  “I’m gonna join the SuperContest this year…TWICE…and, and… pick almost the exact same games with both entries!  This is such a good idea!”  I’m going to assume this person is NOT A DAY TRADER.

I would throw out my $.02 about the replacement ref situation after the complete and utter debacle that ensued last night, but I have a feeling the blogspot server would crash when I try to submit a post that has more pages than our national debt has dollars.

 

Wednesday or Thursday night, I will post the Week 4 Guessing of the Lines.  Come again then