Week 3 SuperContest Guessing of the Lines

The LVH posted the Week 3 lines for the SuperContest late afternoon on Wednesday.  Once again, I missed 1 line by a lot and 2 more lines by about a field goal.  Let’s take a look at the matchups, my guesses, and the SuperContest lines for Week 3 

 

Away	Home	Guess	SC Line
Giants	Panthers	Giants -1.5	PK
Rams	Bears	Bears -7	Bears -7.5
Bills	Browns	Bills -3	Bills -3
Bucs	Cowboys	Cowboys -4.5	Cowboys -7
Jags	Colts	Colts -4	Colts -3
Jets	Dolphins	Jets -4.5	Jets -3
49ers	Vikes	49ers -12.5	49ers -7
Chiefs	Saints	Saints -7	Saints -8.5
Lions	Titans	Lions -2.5	Lions -3.5
Bengals	Redskins	Redskins -3	Redskins -3.5
Eagles	Cards	Eagles -3	Eagles -4
Falcons	Chargers	Chargers -3	Chargers -3.5
Texans	Broncos	Broncos -1	Broncos +2.5
Steelers	Raiders	Steelers -7	Steelers -4
Pats	Ravens	Ravens -3	Ravens -3
Packers	Seahawks	Packers -4.5	Packers -3

 

49ers @ Vikings

 

There doesn’t appear to be any major injuries on either side.  The 49ers look unbeatable, and the Vikings try to lose every week.  They should start patenting some of the ways they find to lose games.  So, why is this spread not at least 10?  All I can say is Vegas must have some insider knowledge that tells them the Vikings are going to keep this game close.  It’s most likely a combination of a West coast team that plays home games outdoors traveling east to play a dome team.  Stats against the spread get whacky when teams cross 2+ time zones and play teams with… excess belly-button lint.  Seriously though, history has shown this type of travel and game time difference (I believe the 49ers usually play 1 their time and will be playing instead at 10 AM their time on Sunday) takes teams out of their element.  Nonetheless, the majority of public bettors will ignore this and take the 49ers -7.  The ones that don’t are Vikings fans.  If you’re picking this game, sid with the professionals and TAKE THE VIKINGS +7.  AND WHATEVER HAPPENS,  KNOW YOU MADE THE RIGHT PICK!

 

Texans @ Broncos

 

The Texans covered the spread easily both of the 1^st 2 weeks.  They have a very good offense and a very good defense.  The Broncos played very well in Week 1.  In Week 2, 2 major offensive weaknesses got exposed by an above average defense. 

 

1. It’s impossible to implement a Peyton Manning offense with a new team in the amount of time that has elapsed between Manning joining the Broncos and now. 

 

2.  Although I don’t think it’s as big of an issue as most people perceive right now, Peyton’s arm has lost a little zip.

 

Credit the Falcons defensive scheme and execution of that scheme for exposing these weaknesses.  The Falcons were showing Peyton organized chaos on many of the Broncos snaps.  This made it difficult for Peyton.  He audibled to set his offense to run a play that would work against what he saw, but by the time the ball was snapped the defense looked completely different than it did when he audibled.  Peyton would have handled this much better if he were playing with the same team he had been playing with for 5 years.  Also, if his arm strength hadn’t declined some of the balls that got intercepted maybe have just been batted down and some of the balls that fell incomplete may have scooted by defenders and been caught by Denver receivers.  Did anyone notice early in the game when Peyton WAS completing passes to HIS OWN TEAM that Jacob Tamme was often on the receiving end?  Tamme was teammates with Manning in Indianapolis.  Those two understand what each other is going to do depending on what the defense throws at them.  When Peyton gets uncomfortable, he finds receivers he understands and who understand him.  In Indy, he had a handful of them.  In Denver, he has just 1…for now.

 

Favoring the Texans in Denver tells me Vegas is going to keep favoring the Texans by more and more until they get a good feel for JUST HOW GOOD the Texans are.  Vegas cannot allow teams to keep crushing spreads or bettors will take those teams every week.  I THINK Vegas over-corrected on this one, though.  Don’t get me wrong.  There’s going to continue to be inconsistencies on offense for the Broncos throughout most, if not all, of this season.  If you look at last week, however, Manning threw 4 1^st half picks, and the Broncos still managed to only lose by 6.  Like the Texans, the Broncos also have a very solid defense.  Manning will not have crowd noise to deal with this week, he will be better prepared to face some of the looks he saw last week that future opponents (Texans this week) will be trying to emulate, and his defense will keep him in the game 90% of the time.  He won’t be perfect, but you’ll see vast improvements over last week.  TAKE THE BRONCOS AT HOME.

 

Steelers @ Raiders

 

The Raiders are 0-2-0 Against The Spread this year.  You know how I know that?  BECAUSE WE PICKED THEM BOTH TIMES AND LOST!  Last week, you saw Reggie Bush destroy a very respectable Raiders defense.  Maybe you think the Raiders defense is especially susceptible to shifty running backs.  Maybe you think it was just one of those fluke weeks where a good defense has a bad day.  I support the latter, but either way it doesn’t matter this week against the Steelers.  With Rashard Mendenhall listed as doubtful (not that he is a super-shifty RB), there’s no reason the Raiders should have trouble defending the ground game.  Maybe it’s just because I don’t follow the Steelers that closely, but I can’t name the Steelers running back right now.  Can you?  Is he any good?  In addition to Mendenhall being doubtful, Polamalu, Sanders, Harrison, Wallace, and Heath Miller are all questionable for Week 3.  I definitely think we’re seeing these injury statuses, AND a matchup deficiency for the Steelers, affecting this line.  TAKE THE RAIDERS.  I’m predicting a game-winning field goal by Seabass at the horn.

 

Well, that’s it for the missing of the line guessing and the explaining of the line missing.  Last week, my picks of the Colts and Seahawks panned out, and the Browns/Bengals turned out to be a wash.  Let’s see if the Raiders, Broncos, and Vikings can pull through for me this week.

 

As a bonus, I’m going to provide you with Bucky Bluebird’s Week 3 pick since the dumbass (sorry Bucky) just HAD to pick the Thursday game.  Bucky is taking PANTHERS PK tonight… but what the hell does he know?  He’s 0-2 and must just be giddy to get to that 0-3 mark before Freddy and Peter have a chance to catch him.  Again, I apologize Bucky.  ;)

 

Also, don’t miss Herby’s LOCK OF THE WEEK, which will be available sometime Friday evening, followed by the rest of the picks of THE BISNESS and the consensus SuperContest picks that will be posted over the weekend.

 

GO CAM!