Week 4 Analysis: LVH SuperContest

The SuperContest consensus finally figured it out in Week 4. Prepare for overconfidence to trump modesty and logic. In Week 5, the consensus will revert to their sub-50% picking ways. Will THE BISNESS be able to break the trend of a highly positive weekly correlation with the consensus? Keep in mind that my sub-50% prediction comes without having analyzed the Week 5 LVH lines and consensus picks. If I was a soothsayer, I'd give you my hypothesis right now. As it stands, the prediction will remain a gut feeling until Saturday-ish when I see the consensus picks. I just don't think the consensus knows what they're doing. Even after a 63% picking week, contestants are still sitting at just over 51% overall. This is my opinion, but I believe a majority of the obvious picks to the lay bettor covered in Week 4 (Patriots, Texans, Chargers, 49ers, Broncos, Bengals, and Giants). These above average teams were all either on the road or giving a bunch of points @ home. Fluke weeks happen. Week 4 was one of those.

Let's take a look at the leaderboard through 4 weeks:

THE NUTS .	16
ANCRCHIOTS UNITED.	15.5
FRANCOSPORTS. COM	15
ICE HOUSE SPORTS 2.	15
OPERATION HIGH STAKES.	15
KURLY .	14.5
4 RODY .	14.5
THERE WILL BE BLOOD.	14.5
VLBD .	14.5
CHECKMATE .	14.5
HIGH RROLLER STEAM.COM.	14.5

As you can see, 3POINTDOG dropped from 1st place out of the Top 10 with a 1-4 week.

11 people are still picking 72.5% or better. By the end of the contest, there will be no one picking this well. Here's a little further perspective: Right now, 146 contestants are at 60% or better and 25 are at 70% or better. By contest's end, those numbers will be <30 and 0, respectively.

There were 61 perfect 5s and 5 hopeless 0s this week.

Now let's look at the splits after Week 4:

Totals
W	L	T		%
14	8	1	Home Dog	63%
14	23	1	Home Fav.	38%
23	14	1	Road Dog	62%
8	14	1	Road Fav.	37%
0	2	0	Home PK	0%
2	0	0	Road PK	100%
22	36	2	Favs	38%
36	22	2	Dogs	62%
28	31	2	Home	48%
31	28	2	Road	52%
2	2	0	PK	50%
61	61	4	ALL	50%

DOGS ARE COVERING SPREADS AT OVER 60% THROUGH 4 WEEKS! Over the next month or so, look for favorites to receive slightly more lenient spreads in order to shift the splits back towards equilibrium. As you can see, the Home/Road split is roughly equal right now.

The Texans are the only remaining team undefeated against SuperContest spreads, while the Lions and Eagles have yet to cover a spread. The Eagles record is 3-1, but they are 0-4 against the spread...AND TWO OF THOSE SPREADS WERE -2.5 AT HOME. It is very difficult to win and not cover -2.5. Will Vegas adjust their lines slightly to push these 3 teams away from the extremes?

Herby and Willy are back to their winning ways. GOOD JOB, FELLAS! Freddy may have found his niche picking Road Dogs. Bucky's finally on the board, and the Penguin man is as cold as his natural habitat. Maybe if I change his name to Peter Parrot, Panther, or Panda his picks will warm up a bit.

Herby Hamster	1-0-0
Willy Walrus	1-0-0
Freddy Ferret	1-0-0
Bucky Bluebird	1-0-0
Peter Penguin	0-1-0

Overall

Herby Hamster	3-1-0
Willy Walrus	3-1-0
Freddy Ferret	2-2-0
Bucky Bluebird	1-3-0
Peter Penguin	0-4-0

TEAM WHODID	5-0-0	5
THE BISNESS	4-1-0	4
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE	3-2-0	3
VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM	3-2-0	3
FEZZIK	3-2-0	3
SIMBOTICS	2-3-0	2

Overall

VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM	13-7-0	13
TEAM WHODID	12-6-2	13
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE	10-10-0	10
THE BISNESS	9-11-0	9
SIMBOTICS	8-11-1	8.5
FEZZIK	7-12-1	7.5

THE BISNESS finally had a good week. Herby and Willy are getting awfully cocky in the contestant lounge. They think they can’t lose. Let’s see if me exposing their arrogance to the outside world jinxes ‘em this week. Can you tell I’m not superstitious?

Don’t miss out on the Week 5 Guessing of the Lines post which will go up tomorrow or Thursday.