Week 5 Analysis: LVH SuperContest

As I predicted, contestants went under 50% again.  In fact, the consensus had its worst week so far this year.  Through Week 4, when the consensus had a bad week so did THE BISNESS, and vice versa.  In Week 5, the consensus was atrocious, and THE BISNESS grinded its way to a 3-2 record. 

A couple of the most “obvious” picks didn’t cover this week.  C’mon, without digging into details, who really thought the Dolphins or Chiefs were going to cover their spreads?  NO ONE!...except Vegas.  Also, the consensus Top 5 (Saints, Texans, Bengals, Steelers, Titans) went 1-4 in Week 5. 

Week 5 was a week for the Home teams as they went 9-5 ATS.  Home underdogs continue to dominate spreads.  In Week 5, they went 4-2 and increased the season win percentage to 64%.  I’ve said this before, and I’m going to keep pounding on it.  THIS NUMBER IS OUTRAGEOUS!  In a given year, you can always expect Home underdogs to cover spreads at over 50%, but this number will never finish at 64%, or even 60%.  It appears there will be 4 Home underdogs in Week 6.  At a glance, Vegas seems to have made an adjustment to make it more difficult for the Home underdogs to cover this week. 

 

Let’s take a look at the leaderboard through 5 weeks.

FRANCOSPORTS. COM	18
THE NUTS .	18
OPERATION HIGH STAKES.	18
ETOWN .	18
ANCRCHIOTS UNITED.	17.5
ICE HOUSE SPORTS 2.	17
MR SMITH .	17
JEDI WARRIOR .	17
WISKY .	17
CLEVTA .	17
HEISENBERG .	17
TUCKER KNICKS .	17

 

There are now only 5 contestants picking at, or above, the 70% mark.  I don’t remember the exact numbers from last year, but 5 is far less than last year through 5 weeks.  Also, only 96 contestants (under 13%) are still picking at, or above, 60%.  Remember, most years 60% WILL get you in the money.  I expect this year to be no different, even though with such a large number of contestants you would expect that 60% benchmark to increase a bit.

 

There were 7 perfect 5s and 26 0s this week.

 

I already talked a little bit about Home teams dominating spreads in Week 5, but here are the rest of the SuperContest splits so far this season.

 

Totals
W	L	T		%
18	10	1	Home Dog	64%
19	26	1	Home Fav.	42%
26	19	1	Road Dog	58%
10	18	1	Road Fav.	36%
0	2	0	Home PK	0%
2	0	0	Road PK	100%
29	43	2	Favs	41%
43	29	2	Dogs	59%
37	36	2	Home	51%
36	37	2	Road	49%
2	2	0	PK	50%
75	75	4	ALL	50%

 

The numbers certainly indicate that over the rest of the season more favorites, and more specifically more Road favorites, will cover than underdogs.  That is, if the statistics are to regress towards the mean.

 

Now let’s take a look at the individual/overall records for THE BISNESS.

Bucky Bluebird	1-0-0
Peter Penguin	1-0-0
Willy Walrus	1-0-0
Freddy Ferret	0-1-0
Herby Hamster	0-1-0
Willy Walrus	4-1-0
Herby Hamster	3-2-0
Bucky Bluebird	2-3-0
Freddy Ferret	2-3-0
Peter Penguin	1-4-0

 

Willy is alone on top after Week 5, as the Hamster man slipped up.  If this continues, I might have to reassign the Friday LOCK OF THE WEEK column to the tusk-toothed mammal himself.

 

Peter is ON THE BOARD, and Bucky claimed his 2^nd straight win.

 

How did the rest of notable contestants pick in Week 5?

VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM	3-2-0	3
THE BISNESS	3-2-0	3
SIMBOTICS	3-2-0	3
FEZZIK	3-2-0	3
TEAM WHODID	1-4-0	1
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE	0-5-0	0
VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM	16-9-0	16
TEAM WHODID	13-10-2	14
THE BISNESS	12-13-0	12
SIMBOTICS	11-13-1	11.5
FEZZIK	10-14-1	10.5
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE	10-15-0	10

 

 

Cousin Sal (TEAM WHODID) avoided a 0 in Week 5 with a Jets cover on Monday Night Football last night, while Chad Millman (NOW 100% SWEAT FREE) was unable to avoid a winless week.  The rest all had solid weeks.  Dave Tuley (VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM) is still hovering in the Top 30, as he is tied for 29^th with 20 other contestants.  Tuley is picking at 64% so far.  If he can average a 3-2 record for the next 2 months, he will definitely be in striking distance for the $400K+ grand prize during the waning weeks of the contest.

One last thing…remember when I said I was 9-2 with my “which lines am I off by the most” predictions?  Well, I went 3 for 3 to go to 12-2.  WHEN LINES DON’T MAKE SENSE, THERE’S ALMOST ALWAYS A LEGITIMATE REASON FOR IT!!  EMBRACE IT! DON'T PRETEND YOU KNOW MORE THAN THE ODDSMAKERS!