Week 5 SuperContest: Guessing of the Lines

Away	Home	Guess	SC Line
Cards	Rams	Cards -2.5	Cards -1
Dolphins	Bengals	Bengals -7	Bengals -3
Packers	Colts	Packers -5.5	Packers -7
Ravens	Chiefs	Ravens -7.5	Ravens -5
Browns	Giants	Giants -10.5	Giants -8.5
Eagles	Steelers	Steelers -3	Steelers -3.5
Falcons	Redskins	Falcons -3	Falcons -3
Seahawks	Panthers	Panthers -3	Panthers -3
Bears	Jags	Bears -3.5	Bears -6
Titans	Vikes	Vikes -4	Vikes -5.5
Broncos	Pats	Pats -6	Pats -6.5
Bills	49ers	49ers -9.5	49ers -9.5
Chargers	Saints	PK	Saints -3.5
Texans	Jets	Texans -4	Texans -8

If you take a look back at the first 4 weeks of the “Guessing of the Lines” posts, you’ll find that my predictions on the games where I missed the line by the most each week have gone 9-2.  Let’s see if I can go 0-3 this week and regress towards the mean.

 

Dolphins @ Bengals

 

As far as injuries go, it looks as though everyone on both sides is “Questionable,” “Probable,” or “Healthy as an Ox.”  I don’t see key injuries having any effect on this line.

 

The more I look at this game, the more my head spins.  My perceptions are these:

 

Bengals: 3-1, losing to the Ravens, beating the Browns, Redskins, and Jaguars – The Bengals wins are very weak.  They DID go on the road and win each of the last 2 weeks, but I think Vegas isn’t going to give the Bengals any credit until they beat a good team.  Vegas is giving the Bengals less credit than their record warrants, and you can certainly make the case that they don’t deserve it…because I just made that case.  Beat a good team, and we’ll give you credit.

 

Dolphins: 1-3, beating the Raiders, losing to the Texans, Jets, and Cards – The Dolphins got crushed by the Texans, then crushed the Raiders, and then played 2 average to slightly above average teams tough(I know the Jets have been very sub-average lately due to the horrific play of Marky Mark Sanchise, but their defense is good and they are a good team when their QB is competent.)  Also, Tannehill is improving as the season progresses.  It seems like most people just automatically grouped the Dolphins into that category of crappy teams and won’t reconsider their standing no matter what.

 

So, you’ve got a 3-1 team vs. a 1-3 team, and Vegas is basically saying they think these 2 teams are equal?  Who do you suppose most people will be picking? 

 

…Correct, the Bengals. 

 

For this reason, I think Dolphins +3 is the right play.  This is not an easy pick, however.  Tannehill is improving, but he’s still a rookie.  After just 4 games, it’s impossible to predict what level of play he will showcase Sunday.  On the other hand, Dalton hasn’t been great in his first few years, but he is a solid QB.  He isn’t going to make a lot of mistakes, and he will generally keep his team in the game.  Based on the QB factor, I would take the Bengals.

 

My split personality disorder is in no way helping me pick this game.  So, what’s my final answer…?  Leave this game alone, but if you HAVE to pick it take the DOLPHINS!  In my opinion, the fishiness of the line trumps the disparity in QB play.

 

Chargers @ Saints

There looks to be no key injuries here either.  So, let’s play a little game called “Who’s the better team?, How do they match up?, and How motivated is each team?” 

 

Who’s the better team? 

I won’t waste anyone’s time.  Right now, the Chargers are the better team.

How do they match up? 

Well, each team seems to put 9 guys out there on defense each week.  The whispers around the water well are saying the Chargers D won’t be able to stop Brees.  I don’t think the Saints D will be able to stop Rivers either. 

 

Based on the first 2 parts to this wonderfully amusing 3 question game I’ve posed, you would think the Saints would be favored by less than 3 or the Chargers would be slightly favored. The final answer to the final of the 3 questions clues us in as to why this is not the case.

 

How motivated is each team?

The Chargers are comfortable right now at 3-1.  Comfortable is a bad place to be in the NFL.  Bad teams beat good teams when good teams get comfortable.  The Chargers might take the winless Saints lightly in this game.  Even if they don’t take them lightly, they still have to deal with playing a Saints team that feels they are in a MUST WIN situation, AT HOME, with their QB gunning for sole possession of the consecutive games with a TD pass streak.  Let’s just say the adrenaline will be pumping a tad more for the Saints than it will be for the Chargers.  Brees will not be denied the record, or the win, on Sunday night.  THE SAINTS WILL WIN BY 10 OR MORE!

 

Texans @ Jets

 

There’s no need to dig deeply into this matchup.  The Texans are the only remaining team that is undefeated against SuperContest spreads.  The Jets have looked miserable of late.  Vegas could set this line anywhere between -3.5 and -10 for the Texans and get away with it.  If Sanchez continues to play like Ryan Leaf, the Jets will get pounded.  If Sanchez plays like he is capable of playing, the Jets will have a good chance to win this game.  My opinion on this spread isn’t strong, but I have to go with the Jets +8.  Sanchez is fighting for his starting job, the Jets are AT HOME, and the Texans are comfortable. 

 

The smartest play on this game is the Jets ML.  When the Jets are good, they can be real good.  Take a chance on them at 3/1 that they will be real good on Monday night.  It’s a value play, but it’s the right play.

 

THE BISNESS just happened to pick the Thursday night game as one of their 5 for the week.  Bucky just can’t stay away from those Thursday night games!  His pick is Rams +1 tonight as they host the undefeated Cardinals.  Hopefully the Rams can stay in the game longer than the 12 seconds Cam and the Panthers did a few Thursdays ago.

 

Don’t miss Herby’s LOCK OF THE WEEK which will come out sometime Friday.

 

Take it away, Backstreet Boys! 

“...Bye bye bye…BYE! BYE!!”