Thursday, October 11, 2012

Week 6 SuperContest: Guessing of the Lines

I’m back for another installment of “whiff the line, crush the spread.”  Let’s get into the matchups, my guesses, and the actual SuperContest lines.

 

Away Home Guess SC Line
Steelers Titans Steelers -10.5 Steelers -5.5
Raiders Falcons Falcons -7.5 Falcons -8.5
Cowboys Ravens Ravens -5.5 Ravens -3.5
Bengals Browns Bengals -3 Bengals PK
Rams Dolphins Dolphins -3.5 Dolphins -3.5
Colts Jets Jets -3.5 Jets -3
Lions Eagles Eagles -6 Eagles -4.5
Chiefs Bucs Bucs -4 Bucs -3.5
Bills Cards Cards -4 Cards -4.5
Pats Seahawks Pats -5 Pats -3.5
Giants 49ers 49ers -4 49ers -4.5
Vikes Redskins Redskins -2.5 Vikings -2.5
Pack Texans Texans -6 Texans -3.5
Broncos Chargers Chargers -3 Chargers -1.5


Ishka-bibble!  I missed 2 lines by 5 points this week!  Let’s try to rationalize what’s going on here.

 
Steelers @ Titans


LaMarr Woodley, Troy Polamalu, and Jake Locker will not participate in tonight’s on field activities.  Why, you might ask?  All three of these guys are members of the Kevin Brockmeier Book Club.  Brockmeier happens to be presenting a free public reading at 8 PM tonight in the Governors Room of the Overman Student Center at Pittsburgh State University.  Woodley, Polamalu, and Locker all have taken for granted that the Steelers will crush the Titans regardless of whether any of them play.  Since the public reading is taking place in Pittsburgh, it just felt right for Polamalu and Woodley to take it in.  Polamalu was quoted as saying “It just makes sense to attend…Kevin is such a wonderful author, and THE READING IS TAKING PLACE RIGHT HERE IN MY BACKYARD!”

 
That was obviously a joke.  Well…not the part about Brockmeier presenting a reading at PSU.  That’s actually happening.  But Woodley, Polamalu, and Locker aren’t in his book club…to my knowledge.  They’re just not playing because they’re injured. 

 
In all seriousness, why is this line so low?  Part of it is obviously because 2 key pieces of the Steelers defense are missing.  But based on the Titans collective lack of effort/talent/success this year, shouldn’t the line be at least 7?  Wait a minute…the Steelers are 2-0 at home and 0-2 on the road this year.  Their losses came to an average team and a below average team, the Broncos and Raiders, respectively.  Despite the perception many people have that the Steelers are a perennial powerhouse, they haven’t actually proven anything yet this year.  Talent on paper doesn’t win games.  Execution does. 


Until the Steelers win on the road or beat a good team, don’t automatically check the box next to their name on your betting ticket.  The Titans have looked horrible this year.  I get that, but do you think they’re giving up?  Hasselbeck is a backup QB this year.  Don’t you think he’s trying to prove something and win the starting job?  He had quite a few solid seasons over the years. 

 
Here’s my prediction:

Hasselbeck won’t have 2 bad games in a row.  The Titans are going to be motivated for a night game in which no one thinks they have a chance to win.  Chris Johnson will be jacked up to show the world he’s not just an afterthought.  The Steelers are missing a few guys, but you know they still think they can beat the Titans with blindfolds on.  Fight your urge to take the better team in this one.  Bad teams cover spreads too, and tonight that’s what you’re gonna see.  Take TITANS +5.5 and KNOW YOU MADE THE RIGHT PLAY!

 
Bengals @ Browns


As of now, there are no definitive player absences for this game.  Joe Haden’s suspension is over.  He will be back on the field for the Browns.

 
Let’s make this easy.  The Bengals are 3-2.  The Browns are 0-5.  All you have to do is pick the winner of this game.  GO!  No brainer…check the box…BENGALS....WRONG!!!

 
These 2 teams already played once this year in Week 2.  The Bengals won by 7 at home.  Both offenses had no problems scoring.  The Browns were down double digits multiple times in that Week 2 game and kept fighting back.  These teams are divisional opponents that know each other inside and out.  You can throw the records out the window.  Expect the Browns to get off the shnide on Sunday.  At worst, the Browns keep this game close with a good chance of pulling it out in the end.  But don’t be surprised if they win by a TD or more either.  Take BROWNS PK

 
Vikings @ Redskins

 
It’s hard for me to say exactly what is going on with this line.  It opened as the Redskins being a slight favorite.  The SuperContest line has Vikings -2.5.  The SC line would make sense if RG3 wasn’t playing, but it appears he WILL play.  Are the sharps simply crushing the Vikings side and forcing Vegas to move the line that much?  Or, are the Redskins bluffing the public into thinking RG3 will play when they know full well he won’t?  Preparing for RG3 vs. Kirk Cousins is “slightly different.”   Maybe the Redskins will pull the swapperoony on Sunday and put Cousins out there, and maybe they won’t.  Either way, you can’t base predictions on things uncertain, so I’ll make a prediction based on things we DO know.

 
Home or Away, the Redskins have been in every game they’ve played so far this year.  They’ve already beaten the Saints and Buccaneers on the road, and you can argue they would’ve had a good chance to beat the Falcons if RG3 didn’t get knocked out of the game.

 
The Vikings haven’t beaten anyone good on the road.  The 1 road win they have this year came against the lowly Lions.  In that game, the Vikings had 2 return TDs, and Ponder’s stat line was miserable, or better yet, just nonexistent. 


The Vikings are probably a better team at this point, but it’s not a no-brainer.  You can’t expect them to go on the road and win this game, regardless of who’s quarterbacking the Redskins.  Take REDSKINS +2.5

One more thing:  Bucky just happened to pick the Thursday night game AGAIN this week.  He is going with...

Titans +5.5

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