| Away | Home | Guess | SC Line |
| Seahawks | 49ers | 49ers -6 | 49ers -7 |
| Titans | Bills | Bills -3 | Bills -3.5 |
| Cowboys | Panthers | Cowboys -3 | Cowboys -2.5 |
| Ravens | Texans | Texans -3 | Texans -6.5 |
| Browns | Colts | Colts -4 | Colts -3 |
| Cards | Vikes | Vikes -3 | Vikes -6.5 |
| Redksins | Giants | Giants -5 | Giants -5.5 |
| Packers | Rams | Packers -6 | Packers -5.5 |
| Saints | Bucs | Bucs -2.5 | Saints -2.5 |
| Jets | Pats | Pats -6.5 | Pats -10.5 |
| Jags | Raiders | Raiders -4 | Raiders -4.5 |
| Steelers | Bengals | Bengals -1 | Steelers -2.5 |
| Lions | Bears | Bears -5.5 | Bears -6.5 |
Ravens
@ Texans
My
Texans -3 guess was made without knowing Ray Lewis and Lardarius (yes, that’s
really how it’s spelled) Webb will not play.
My analysis of this game might sound stupid, but it’s what I think. Hopefully it’s more entertaining than a
straightforward analysis would be.
Here
goes:
Lewis
and Webb are HUGE losses for the Ravens.
The Ravens defense lost its leader/captain and one of the best
cornerbacks in the league. The Texans
should be able to do whatever they want against a leader-less Ravens D that is
already underachieving this year, right?
I DISAGREE, and here’s why:
It’s
not blatantly obvious that Ray Lewis is making egregious mistakes out there. He still seems to be doing his job pretty
well. But MAYBE it will take seeing his
replacement play a few games before we realize the fossil just aint quite
cutting it anymore. I don’t think this
injury hurts as much as people think.
And who knows, maybe it will help the Ravens. We’ll see on Sunday.
You’ve
probably heard something like this before: “When an offense can do whatever it
wants (run/pass) well, it loses focus and tends to execute each component of
its offense poorly.” It’s the same idea
as: when things are easy for people, they tend to get lazy because they know
they can get the job done with little effort.
The result is underperformance. I
think you’re going to see the Texans offense underperform this week. However, if the Texans learned anything from
the Green Bay game, it’s not to take a below average (or in this case heavily
injured) defense lightly. The Texans DO
have the “don’t make the same mistake twice in succession” lesson on their
side.
It
also seems like when teams lose marquee players, instead of being worse off
they tend to play better as a team because they know it’s required if they want
to be successful in the absence of their superstars. Expect this to happen.
Take
Ravens +6.5
Cardinals
@ Vikings
This
line confuses me, and it’s making it hard for me to pick a side. So, Skelton won the starting job this
year. He gets injured. Kolb takes over and plays mediocre, but the
Cardinals win more games than they were “supposed to” to this point. Now Skelton is back after the Kolb injury. So, the Cards have THEIR guy back
essentially, right? Yet, it seems like
Kolb going down has altered this line. HMMM…
Both
teams are 4-2. If you were to tell me to
pick an NFL team that is just as good or an “equal” matchup for the Vikings or
Cardinals, I would pick them for each other.
They’re both 4-2. Both have
played better than they were supposed to.
Both QBs are average (depending on who you talk to). SO WHY IS THIS LINE 6.5?!! I can’t tell you that. I CAN tell you Kolb’s injury isn’t worth 3
points. Something’s going on here. Something tells me the Vikings are going to
roll!
Take
Vikings -6.5
Saints
@ Bucs
I’ll
keep this one brief. The Bucs have lost
close games to above average teams, and they’ve beaten 2 below average
teams. The Saints beat the Chargers and
no one else. It just seems like the vast
majority of people are still willing to believe the Saints are pretty damn good. The Bucs are a decent team, but no one ever
hears or talks about them. Talk to me
when the Saints get to 8-6, and I’ll coin them “pretty damn good.” So, talk to me never.
The
Bucs stud cornerback, Talib, is out for this game. This is a significant loss for the Bucs, and
this definitely altered the line, if only slightly. However, the Saints should not be favored on
the road against a better Bucs bunch.
Fight the urge to pick the publicly popular Saints. It just feels to me like the public is on the
Saints, and the sharps are on the Bucs.
Take
Buccaneers +2.5
Jets
@ Patriots
The
Jets 2 backup running backs, McKnight and Powell, are both doubtful for Sunday’s
game. If Shonn Greene goes down, are we
going to see Rex Ryan at tailback? I
know the Patriots are a far better team than the Jets, but how can you set the
line for this divisional rivalry game at more than 10 points? I think if the Patriots had held on and
beaten the Seahawks by 10+, and the Jets hadn’t begun to believe they’re a
decent team again, you’d see this line at 7.5.
The Patriots would be more comfortable, and the Jets would be fighting
harder for wins…and respect. This line screams “Patriots are really good and they’re
pissed off, and the Jets have won lately, but they still suck really bad” to
me. But still, 10.5 is just too many
points. It’s generally a good idea to
stay away from large spreads in the NFL.
That’s my advice on this game.
But since I HAVE to pick it…
Take
Jets +10.5
Steelers
@ Bengals
Are
EITHER of these teams good? I don’t
think anyone knows yet. I don’t think
there’s much to analyze here. Both teams
have underachieved so far this year. I
think you’re seeing the Steelers favored because they’ve won Super Bowls in the
last 10 years, they have the tradition, they have the superstars…la dee dah dee
dah. Basically, they’re one of those
teams the public loves to pick without ever needing a sound reason. The Bengals fall into the pool of teams, like
the Bucs as I mentioned above, that get less credit than they deserve because
they don’t have the names and tradition and are almost never in the spotlight.
Take
Bengals +2.5
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