Week 10 Analysis: LVH Super Contest

I was way off in saying contestants would pick under 50% in Week 10. They picked at 50.0955%. ...I’m very sorry... It’s good to see the NFL reverted to normality.  In Week 10, no matter what type of bettor you tended to be, you weren’t going to have a great week.  It didn’t matter whether you generally like home teams, road teams, favorites, or underdogs.  It wasn’t like last week where you could ride all of the favorites and win 80% of your bets.  The 4 splits were about as close to 50/50 as you will see for 1 week. 

	Week 10
	W	L	T
Favs	6	8	0
Dogs	8	6	0
Home	6	8	0
Road	8	6	0

 

What did this mean for Vegas following a week in which it took one of its worst beatings in the NFL ever?  I don’t have the stats, but I would imagine the vast majority of bettors at least got juiced, and the vast majority of books were back comfortably in the green.  For illustrative purposes, people who liked Carolina a lot in Week 10 probably liked the Bengals a lot as well.  The same can be said for the Broncos and Giants.  C’mon, you can’t tell me there weren’t multiple meat-heads out there saying to each other “LET’S PARLAY THE MANNING BROS!  PEYTON’S ON A ROLL, AND ELI WON’T LOSE 2 IN A ROW!  THEY’RE BOTH PLAYING CRAPPY TEAMS! WOOOH!”  I guess if you rode the 3 double digit dogs you had yourself a nice 3-0 week. 

 

How does the leaderboard look after Week 10?

 

KURLY .	34
THERE WILL BE BLOOD.	33.5
CARDIFF GIANT .	33.5
MIKE BOYD #1 .	32.5
MALU MAN .	32.5
JAY STONES .	32.5
SULLY SPORTS .	32.5
WISKY .	32
KETCHUP .	32
HEISENBERG .	32
MAKIN DOUGH .	32
THE NUTS .	32
THE COUNT. .	32
3POINTDOG .	32
BITTERBATTER & JELLY	32
PARTNERS .	32
FATBOY .	32

 

Previous leader, KURLY, regained the lead.  More or less, the top contestants simply shuffled around from Week 9 to Week 10.

 

How did THE BISNESS do in Week 10?

 

Willy Walrus	0-1-0
Freddy Ferret	1-0-0
Bucky Bluebird	0-1-0
Herby Hamster	1-0-0
Peter Penguin	0-1-0
Willy Walrus	7-3-0	7
Freddy Ferret	6-4-0	6
Bucky Bluebird	5-5-0	5
Herby Hamster	4-6-0	4
Peter Penguin	3-7-0	3

 

Back to 50%, we go.  In my opinion, we need to average 3.6 or 3.7 points per week to make the cash.  It’s looking pretty bleak, but I still think we’ve got a 5-0 week in us.  2 weeks ago, I challenged everyone to go 6-3 the rest of the way, thinking that this would get us at least to the cusp of the cash.  That means from here on out we need to achieve the following records:

 

Bucky 5-2

Freddy 4-3

Herby 5-2

Peter 5-2

Willy 5-2

How did the rest of the guys do in Week 10?

TEAM WHODID	3-2-0	3
SIMBOTICS	3-2-0	3
SANS SOUCI	2-3-0	2
THE BISNESS	2-3-0	2
FEZZIK	2-3-0	2
VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM	2-3-0	2
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE	0-5-0	0
VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM	28-22-0	28
TEAM WHODID	26-21-3	27.5
SANS SOUCI	27-23-0	27
FEZZIK	24-24-2	25
THE BISNESS	25-25-0	25
SIMBOTICS	24-25-1	24.5
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE	20-30-0	20

 

There’s not much to sum up.  We all pretty much sucked this past week.  To give you some perspective on how difficult it can be even for some of “those in the know” to consistently pick spreads, Chad Millman recorded his 2^nd 0-5 week this season and is currently sitting at 20-30 (40%) in the Super Contest!

 

Stop by tomorrow for another edition of “Guessing of the Lines.”