Week 11 Analysis: LVH Super Contest

THE BISNESS was both lucky and unlucky in Week 11. 

 

The Lions got stopped on 4^th down in their own territory, leaving just enough time so the Packers wouldn’t be able to run out the clock.  Crosby makes the field goal with seconds remaining.  The Packers cover the spread. 

 

The Bucs erased an 11 point deficit in the final 5 minutes of regulation before going on to beat the Panthers in OT.

 

The Lions was Peter’s pick.  Peter is now 3-8.  The Bucs was Willy’s pick.  Willy is now 8-3.

 

Willy Walrus	1-0-0
Bucky Bluebird	1-0-0
Freddy Ferret	0-1-0
Herby Hamster	0-1-0
Peter Penguin	0-1-0
Willy Walrus	8-3-0	8
Freddy Ferret	6-5-0	6
Bucky Bluebird	6-5-0	6
Herby Hamster	4-7-0	4
Peter Penguin	3-8-0	3

 

After our 2-3 week, we’re going to have to average a 4-1 mark for the next 6 weeks to have a chance to cash.  As I said before, we went on a run like this last year.  There’s quite a difference between having done it before and expecting to do it again.  We are sitting at 27 points right now.  4 points each week for the next 6 would put us at 51 (60%).  I still think this mark will get contestants in the cash.  When asked the other day, Dave Tuley (@ViewFromVegas) tweeted he thought 52.5 would be the cutoff this year.  Hey Dave, do you want to make a friendly, or unfriendly, wager on this?  We can split the difference and set the Over/Under at 51.75.  You get the Over and I’ll take the Under…

 

My challenge to our guys for the rest of the year still stands.  Here’s what we have to do individually to give ourselves a fighting chance:

 

Bucky Bluebird: 4-2

Freddy Ferret: 4-2

Willy Walrus: 4-2

Herby Hamster: 5-1

Peter Penguin: 5-1

 

This means Herby and Peter’s backs are against the wall.  Pick wisely, fellas!

 

For the most part, the rest of the pickers we’ve been following had solid weeks.

 

TEAM WHODID	4-1-0	4
SIMBOTICS	4-1-0	4
SANS SOUCI	3-2-0	3
FEZZIK	3-2-0	3
VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM	3-2-0	3
THE BISNESS	2-3-0	2
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE	2-3-0	2
TEAM WHODID	30-22-3	31.5
VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM	31-24-0	31
SANS SOUCI	30-25-0	30
SIMBOTICS	28-26-1	28.5
FEZZIK	27-26-2	28
THE BISNESS	27-28-0	27
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE	22-33-0	22

 

The summation of Sal, Simmons, SANS SOUCI, and Steve (Fezzik) scored superbly.  Sal and Tuley are 1 monster week away from hitting that 60% mark.  If they can average 3 points, or slightly better than that, over the next 5 weeks, a good final week will get them in the cash.  I really hope Sal is within reach of the Top 20 going into Week 17.  The weekly podcast he does with Simmons will be that much more entertaining.

 

Here are the splits after Week 11

 

Totals
W	L	T		%
27	28	1	Home Dog	49.1%
40	59	2	Home Fav.	40.6%
59	40	2	Road Dog	59.4%
28	27	1	Road Fav.	50.9%
1	2	0	Home PK	33.3%
2	1	0	Road PK	66.7%
67	84	3	Favs	44.5%
84	67	3	Dogs	55.5%
67	87	3	Home	43.6%
87	67	3	Road	56.4%
3	3	0	PK	50.0%
157	157	6	ALL	50.0%

 

Believe it or not, Road Favorites have now covered more Super Contest spreads than Home Underdogs.  After a 21-10-1 start for the Home Underdogs, the Road Favorites have gone 18-6 over the last 5 weeks.  Road Underdogs continue to cover at just under 60%.  When is this number going to regress below 55%?  I’m not sure when, but my guess is that it will fall down below this number by season’s end.  It’s certainly something worth watching over the final 6 weeks of the season.

 

If anyone is curious, and/or refuses to take the time to visit the Super Contest website, here’s the leaderboard through 11 weeks.

 

THERE WILL BE BLOOD.	37.5
MALU MAN .	37.5
KURLY .	37
MAKIN DOUGH .	37
CARDIFF GIANT .	36.5
AL SR. .	36.5
MIKE BOYD #1 .	36.5
JAY STONES .	36.5
PARTNERS .	36
BITTERBATTER & JELLY	36
HEISENBERG .	36
TOOFDOC .	35.5
SALMON BELLY .	35.5
SULLY SPORTS .	35.5
WISKY .	35
ERIK ZUBKOV .	35
MK SPORTS .	35
KETCHUP .	35
GFY .	35

I will be making my Guessing of the Lines post sometime tonight or tomorrow morning.  Also, since it's Thanksgiving and there's 3 Thursday games, there's at least a decent chance our guys pick 1 or more of those games.  If so, I will also post those picks before the Turkey Day action commences.