Week 13 Analysis: LVH Super Contest

Our collective Week 13 picks serve as an excellent illustration as to just how much luck is involved in spread betting.  Each of our picks looked great at some point in the 4^th quarter.  The Bears led by 4 until there were 32 seconds left in the 4^th quarter.  The Lions intercepted Luck with 6:49 left in the 4^th quarter.  They held a 12-point lead at that point.  They ended up losing outright.  The Chargers held a 3-point lead on the Bengals until there was 4:17 left in the 4^th quarter.  The Eagles looked great all game.  Then all of the sudden the Cowboys are running in an Eagles fumble late in the 4^th quarter to go up by 11 and cover the spread.  Then we end up getting a ridiculous backdoor cover on a 98-yard punt return TD by the Eagles.  (Imagine that, Willy!)  The Redskins went back and forth with the Giants all game.  You could argue either side was the right side.

 

My point is: a couple of plays late in each game sealed our fate.  If everything goes right, we’re 5-0.  If everything goes wrong, we’re 0-5.  And the games we picked weren’t the only ones that came down to the wire.  The Broncos covered by 1.  The Dolphins backdoor covered by 1.5.  The Packers/Vikings game ended right on the spread.  For every contestant, there’s at least a swing game or 2 each week.  If you come out on the right side of those games more often than not, you’re sitting pretty with a chance at the cash.  If you come out on the wrong side more often than not, you’re guaranteed a healthy serving of the stuff birds leave on fence posts and car windows.

 

That being said, you don’t pick at under 45% (that’s what we’re at now) by getting unlucky.  There’s no excuse for us being under 50%.  Hopefully we can get that resolved before this contest is over.

 

Enough about that…Who picked what, and what are the Week 13 results and cumulative standings?

 

Willy Walrus	1-0-0
Bucky Bluebird	0-1-0
Freddy Ferret	0-1-0
Herby Hamster	1-0-0
Peter Penguin	0-1-0
Willy Walrus	9-4-0	9
Freddy Ferret	6-7-0	6
Bucky Bluebird	6-7-0	6
Herby Hamster	5-8-0	5
Peter Penguin	3-10-0	3

TEAM WHODID	1-4-0	1
SIMBOTICS	2-3-0	2
SANS SOUCI	3-2-0	3
FEZZIK	4-1-0	4
VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM	3-2-0	3
THE BISNESS	2-3-0	2
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE	4-1-0	4
TEAM WHODID	34-27-4	36
VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM	35-30-0	35
SANS SOUCI	35-30-0	35
SIMBOTICS	33-30-2	34
FEZZIK	32-30-3	33.5
THE BISNESS	29-36-0	29
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE	29-36-0	29

 

After just a 1-4 week, Cousin Sal is going to need to hit 75% the rest of the way to make the cash.  Tuley, SANS SOUCI, Simmons, and Fezzik are going to need to hit at 80% or better over the last 4 weeks if they want to make the money.

 

What does the leaderboard look like now?

 

AL SR. .	44
HEISENBERG .	43.5
CARDIFF GIANT .	43
KURLY .	42.5
PARTNERS .	42.5
MALU MAN .	42
JAY STONES .	42
BITTERBATTER & JELLY	41.5
THERE WILL BE BLOOD.	41.5
MAKIN DOUGH .	41.5
TOOFDOC .	41.5
74 PITBOSS	41
MIKE BOYD #1 .	41
SULLY SPORTS .	41
ORANGE KRUSH .	41
GFY .	41
FATBOY .	41
SALMON BELLY .	40.5
WISKY .	40.5
SDQL MASTER .	40.5
MK SPORTS .	40.5
KETCHUP .	40.5

 

As you can see, Al’s dad is stubborn.  The 33 contestants immediately trailing Al’s dad are all within 5 points of the lead.  This also happens to be the 60% cutoff.  There are only 34 contestants still picking at 60% or better.  With so many contestants, and so few points to be had, this season’s Super Contest is inevitably going to come down to the wire.  Those Week 17 swing games will determine who comes away with the $400K+ 1^st prize, who comes away with considerably less cash, and who comes away with bird droppings/fence post and car window toppings.