If
you’re curious, here are our Week 16 records in detail:
| Willy Walrus | 0-1-0 | |
| Freddy Ferret | 0-1-0 | |
| Bucky Bluebird | 1-0-0 | |
| Herby Hamster | 0-1-0 | |
| Peter Penguin | 0-1-0 | |
| Willy Walrus | 10-6-0 | 10 |
| Freddy Ferret | 8-8-0 | 8 |
| Bucky Bluebird | 8-8-0 | 8 |
| Herby Hamster | 6-10-0 | 6 |
| Peter Penguin | 4-12-0 | 4 |
| VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM | 4-1-0 | 4 |
| SIMBOTICS | 3-2-0 | 3 |
| FEZZIK | 2-3-0 | 2 |
| SANS SOUCI | 2-3-0 | 2 |
| THE BISNESS | 1-4-0 | 1 |
| NOW 100% SWEAT FREE | 1-4-0 | 1 |
| TEAM WHODID | 1-4-0 | 1 |
| FEZZIK | 40-37-3 | 41.5 |
| SANS SOUCI | 41-39-0 | 41 |
| SIMBOTICS | 40-38-2 | 41 |
| VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM | 41-39-0 | 41 |
| TEAM WHODID | 38-38-4 | 40 |
| THE BISNESS | 36-44-0 | 36 |
| NOW 100% SWEAT FREE | 35-45-0 | 35 |
As
I’ve said many times before, let’s look at who DIDN’T suck this week.
| JAY STONES . | 53 |
| TOOFDOC . | 53 |
| WISKY . | 52.5 |
| HEISENBERG . | 52.5 |
| AL SR. . | 52.5 |
| CARDIFF GIANT . | 52 |
| GFY . | 52 |
| KURLY . | 51.5 |
| PARTNERS . | 51.5 |
| SCAGNELLI . | 51 |
| ORANGE KRUSH . | 50.5 |
| 74 PITBOSS | 50 |
| WAZ . | 50 |
| MAKIN DOUGH . | 49.5 |
| MIKE BOYD #1 . | 49.5 |
| MURDER INC . | 49.5 |
| SALMON BELLY . | 49 |
| ETOWN . | 49 |
| JOHN SAM . | 49 |
As
you can see, there’s a tie atop the leaderboard between a man with heavy
trousers and a dentist. There are 11
other contestants within 3 points of the lead, and 38 total contestants are
still picking at or above 60%. If the
contest ended after Week 16, 60.625% correct would get you in the money. I expect contestants will need 51.5 points
(60.6%) after Week 17 to make the cash.
The
last week is always interesting in this contest. Many contestants who are outside the top 20 will
make their Week 17 picks strictly based on which teams they think most other
contestants WILL NOT take. The
assumption is if they take the unpopular teams and most or all of those unpopular
teams cover, they will move further up the standings because most other contestants
will not have picked those teams. Add
into this dynamic the motivation factor for teams. Some teams are mathematically eliminated from
the playoffs already. Some teams are
locked into their playoff seeds no matter what happens Sunday. Some teams will be locked into seeds after
the early round of games, and they will know that prior to kickoff of their own
games. Some teams are jostling for draft
position for next year. How will teams
rest players? How hard will teams be
playing? There’s endless motivating
factors in the final week of the season.
Week 17 really becomes a chess match in the Super Contest. If you’re on the cash bubble, so to speak,
you really have to balance how you think most contestants will pick with team motivation
levels. If I remember correctly, last
year at this time THE BISNESS was 0.5 points out of the money. We made the decision to make our picks as
usual, knowing that 3 or 3.5 points would almost assuredly get us in the
money. We pulled 3.5 points and snuck
into a 7-way tie for 16th place.
Let’s
take a look at the Mini Contest leaderboard.
| DONOHUE2 . | 10 |
| JOHNNYBO.COM | 10 |
| ABC 6 . | 9 |
| BACKNINE | 9 |
| GOLFPROVC . | 9 |
| ILLINI 86 . | 9 |
| JAMES CAHN . | 9 |
| JUICE WILD CAT | 9 |
| LT. HARRY CALLAHAN. | 9 |
| MEATLOVE . | 9 |
| MIKE PIRANIO . | 9 |
| RAGIN CAJUN . | 9 |
| ROWE KENN 2 . | 9 |
| SCAGNELLI . | 9 |
2
contestants have a shot at a perfect score of 15, and 14 contestants have a
shot at 14. I think 13 points will take the
cake.
That’s
your Week 16 update. I’ll be back with
the Guessing of the Lines post tomorrow.
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