Free College Basketball Spread Picks (12/7/17)

For the rest of the college basketball season, I will be posting picks against the spread for all games where both teams are a member of 1 of the 7 major conferences (For the purposes of this blog, I will refer to these conferences as the Power 7.): ACC, American, B1G, Big 12, Big East, PAC 12, and the SEC.

Why am I doing this?

A couple of friends and I have had a friendly pick contest going over the past few sports seasons.  It started with college basketball the middle of last season.  While tracking these picks, I began to notice some trends that were hard to overlook.  Based on these trends, I will be posting “Like It” and “Love It” picks for the remainder of the college basketball season. 

What can readers expect?

There is no guarantee as to how many picks I will post per day for a couple of good reasons.

1.      Some days there are 0 or very few games where a Power 7 team is taking on another Power 7 team.  Today, for example, only the Iowa @ Iowa State game fits this criterion. 

2.      Also, if a game doesn’t fit 1 of the trends I have analyzed, I won’t pick it.  1 of the easiest ways to regress toward the mean when picking games is to pick too many.  I’ll call it “picking to pickle.”  A much better approach is to focus on the matchups you understand best or the trends that display the most significant historical results. 

As a general rule of thumb, you can expect me to pick anywhere from 50% to 100% of the Power 7 vs. Power 7 games for the day.  It really all depends on how the data fits my models.

When will the picks be posted?

Picks will be posted daily no later than 12:30 CST.

Why should we trust your picks?

You shouldn’t...at least not at first.  Be skeptical.  They are free, after all.  I will post periodic updates as to how the picks are tracking with a “Like It” percentage and a “Love It” percentage.  If what I am analyzing is worth its weight, the numbers will speak for themselves.

Well, give us some picks already!

Bad news first: I hate to disappoint, but there is only 1 Power 7 vs. Power 7 game today. 

Good news: Iowa +7  is your first “Love It” pick of the season!

Don’t expect the “Love It” picks to come fast and furious.  You can expect roughly a 2/3 to 1/3 “Like It” to “Love It” pick ratio over the duration of the season.

We all know Peter Piper picked a peck of pickled peppers.  What is yet to be determined is how many college basketball spreads Dana will pick correctly this season.

P.S.  Since I am just firing the blog back up, my timing is a little off.  I’m a few minutes past the 12:30 CST deadline.  Please forgive me!