Week 17 Picks of THE BISNESS & the Consensus

SuperContest Week 17

BUF 79
NYJ 58
NE 95
MIA 77
CIN 87
BAL 77
PIT 168
CLE 47
HOU 116
IND 165
TEN 65
JAX 38
NYG 67
PHI 150
WAS 203
DAL 137
CHI 180
DET 98
GB 161
MIN 161
ATL 66
TB 62
NO 118
CAR 118
DEN 52
KC 73
SD 116
OAK 17
SF 53
ARI 77
SEA 89
STL 140

When I first glanced at the pick totals, I saw only the Redskins were picked more than 200 times.  During a normal week, there's roughly 3 teams who get picked at least that much.  At first, I thought this was because contestants trying to work their way into the money or trying to claim the top prize were attempting to "outthink the room" by cleverly picking those teams they thought most others around them would not pick.  I looked more closely and saw the overall pick numbers for all teams were down.  So, I went out to the Super Contest website and counted the number of contestants who didn't submit their Week 17 picks.  That number is 103.  So 13.8% of the contestants who started this contest failed to finish it.  To me, it's a matter of finishing what you started no matter how bad you're performing.  But I guess sports gamblers are in the business of making money betting sports, not "doing the right thing."  Plus, why do I care anyway?  This might make the difference between us finishing 643rd and 586th!  That is, if my assumption that when a contestant makes 0 picks that contestant has a 0% chance of getting any of those picks correct.  I'm really going to sound smart when THE BISNESS goes 0-5 this week and could have just as well not submitted our picks.

Sorry for the rant.  Here are the much-sought-after picks of THE BISNESS followed by the slightly-more-sought-after picks of other contestants:

Willy Walrus 10,6,0 Cowboys +3
Freddy Ferret 8,8,0 Bills -3.5
Bucky Bluebird 8,8,0 Ravens +2.5
Herby Hamster 6,10,0 Vikings +3.5
Peter Penguin 4,12,0 Colts +6.5

Freddy pointed out to Bucky earlier this week that bragging rights are on the line for 2nd place.  Also, Bucky and Herby have identical cumulative records of 19-13-1 for 2011 & 2012.


NOW 100% SWEAT FREE., 35, 45, 0, JAX, PHI, DET, KC, STL
FEZZIK ., 40, 37, 3, CIN, PIT, IND, PHI, DET
TEAM WHODID., 38, 38, 4, NYJ, CIN, PHI, DAL, GB
SIMBOTICS ., 40, 38, 2, NYJ, CIN, IND, CHI, CAR
SANS SOUCI ., 41, 39, 0, BUF, PIT, DAL, MIN, CAR
VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM., 41, 39, 0, MIA, PHI, MIN, TB, STL

I'll be back 1 more time in a couple of days to publish the final results and analysis of Week 17.  Then, I'll be traveling the country recruiting NFL spread betting mensas to compete for the chance to be a part of 2013's version of THE BISNESS.

Week 17 Guessing of the Lines: LVH Super Contest

Guessing of the lines pick record: 29-22

 

Away	Home	Guess	SC Line
Bucs	Falcons	Falcons -3	Falcons -3.5
Jets	Bills	Bills -4	Bills -3.5
Ravens	Bengals	Ravens -1.5	Bengals -2.5
Bears	Lions	Bears -2.5	Bears -3
Texans	Colts	Texans -4.5	Texans -6.5
Panthers	Saints	Saints -5.5	Saints -5.5
Eagles	Giants	Giants -8.5	Giants -7
Browns	Steelers	Steelers -5	Steelers -6
Jags	Titans	Titans -3	Titans -4
Pack	Vikes	Pack -2	Pack -3.5
Dolphins	Pats	Pats -10	Pats -10
Chiefs	Broncos	Broncos -17	Broncos -16
Raiders	Chargers	Chargers -8.5	Chargers -7
Cards	49ers	49ers -12.5	49ers -16.5
Rams	Seahawks	Seahawks -13	Seahawks -10.5
Cowboys	Redskins	Redskins -2.5	Redskins -3

 

Ravens @ Bengals

 

The Bengals are locked into the #6 seed.  If the Bengals beat the Ravens, they will avoid playing them again in the first round of the playoffs.  But that means they will face the Broncos, Texans, or Patriots instead.  If the Ravens win and the Patriots lose on Sunday, I believe the Ravens get the #3 seed and would host the Bengals in the first round of the playoffs.  It’s hard to say how much this will affect how long each team’s starters stay in the game.  If I were the Ravens coaches/players, I would be hungry for that #3 seed.  You get to host a team you know a lot about, a team you’ve beaten over and over the last few years.  You also avoid playing the #1 seed from the AFC in round 2 of the playoffs.  I think the Ravens have more to gain by winning this game.  Take the Ravens.

 

Cardinals @ 49ers

 

Vegas must have some inside knowledge that the Cardinals want a better draft pick.  There’s no other reason this line should be so high.  The 49ers win the division if they win this game.  I knew that much when I guessed the line at 12.5.  Generally, in this position I take the double-digit divisional dog.  This time I’m going with the favorite.  Take the 49ers.

 

Rams @ Seahawks

 

Can any team come within 14 points of the Seahawks in Seattle anymore?  Maybe the Seahawks will rest their starters a bit in this one.  Does it matter?  Then Matt Flynn throws a couple of TDs, and they cover anyway.  Even if the starters rest, I doubt the starting fans will choose not to go to the game or be quieter.  Take the Seahawks.

Week 16 Analysis: LVH Super Contest

Of the people we’ve been following, Tuley and Simmons were the only 2 who had a winning week in Week 16.  Collectively, we went 14-21 (40%)! 

 

If you’re curious, here are our Week 16 records in detail:

 

Willy Walrus	0-1-0
Freddy Ferret	0-1-0
Bucky Bluebird	1-0-0
Herby Hamster	0-1-0
Peter Penguin	0-1-0
Willy Walrus	10-6-0	10
Freddy Ferret	8-8-0	8
Bucky Bluebird	8-8-0	8
Herby Hamster	6-10-0	6
Peter Penguin	4-12-0	4

VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM	4-1-0	4
SIMBOTICS	3-2-0	3
FEZZIK	2-3-0	2
SANS SOUCI	2-3-0	2
THE BISNESS	1-4-0	1
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE	1-4-0	1
TEAM WHODID	1-4-0	1
FEZZIK	40-37-3	41.5
SANS SOUCI	41-39-0	41
SIMBOTICS	40-38-2	41
VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM	41-39-0	41
TEAM WHODID	38-38-4	40
THE BISNESS	36-44-0	36
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE	35-45-0	35

 

As I’ve said many times before, let’s look at who DIDN’T suck this week.

 

JAY STONES .	53
TOOFDOC .	53
WISKY .	52.5
HEISENBERG .	52.5
AL SR. .	52.5
CARDIFF GIANT .	52
GFY .	52
KURLY .	51.5
PARTNERS .	51.5
SCAGNELLI .	51
ORANGE KRUSH .	50.5
74 PITBOSS	50
WAZ .	50
MAKIN DOUGH .	49.5
MIKE BOYD #1 .	49.5
MURDER INC .	49.5
SALMON BELLY .	49
ETOWN .	49
JOHN SAM .	49

 

As you can see, there’s a tie atop the leaderboard between a man with heavy trousers and a dentist.  There are 11 other contestants within 3 points of the lead, and 38 total contestants are still picking at or above 60%.  If the contest ended after Week 16, 60.625% correct would get you in the money.  I expect contestants will need 51.5 points (60.6%) after Week 17 to make the cash. 

 

The last week is always interesting in this contest.  Many contestants who are outside the top 20 will make their Week 17 picks strictly based on which teams they think most other contestants WILL NOT take.  The assumption is if they take the unpopular teams and most or all of those unpopular teams cover, they will move further up the standings because most other contestants will not have picked those teams.  Add into this dynamic the motivation factor for teams.  Some teams are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs already.  Some teams are locked into their playoff seeds no matter what happens Sunday.  Some teams will be locked into seeds after the early round of games, and they will know that prior to kickoff of their own games.  Some teams are jostling for draft position for next year.  How will teams rest players?  How hard will teams be playing?  There’s endless motivating factors in the final week of the season.  Week 17 really becomes a chess match in the Super Contest.  If you’re on the cash bubble, so to speak, you really have to balance how you think most contestants will pick with team motivation levels.  If I remember correctly, last year at this time THE BISNESS was 0.5 points out of the money.  We made the decision to make our picks as usual, knowing that 3 or 3.5 points would almost assuredly get us in the money.  We pulled 3.5 points and snuck into a 7-way tie for 16^th place.

 

Let’s take a look at the Mini Contest leaderboard.

 

DONOHUE2 .	10
JOHNNYBO.COM	10
ABC 6 .	9
BACKNINE	9
GOLFPROVC .	9
ILLINI 86 .	9
JAMES CAHN .	9
JUICE WILD CAT	9
LT. HARRY CALLAHAN.	9
MEATLOVE .	9
MIKE PIRANIO .	9
RAGIN CAJUN .	9
ROWE KENN 2 .	9
SCAGNELLI .	9

 

2 contestants have a shot at a perfect score of 15, and 14 contestants have a shot at 14.  I think 13 points will take the cake.

 

That’s your Week 16 update.  I’ll be back with the Guessing of the Lines post tomorrow. 

Week 16 Picks of THE BISNESS & the Consensus

SuperContest Week 16

ATL 120
DET 128
GB 62
TEN 57
CAR 151
OAK 54
MIA 57
BUF 93
PIT 98
CIN 232
NE 85
JAX 60
IND 155
KC 63
DAL 122
NO 181
WAS 197
PHI 95
TB 89
STL 63
NYG 207
BAL 69
HOU 52
MIN 126
DEN 53
CLE 179
CHI 137
ARI 40
SF 122
SEA 232
NYJ 43
SD 83

Willy Walrus 10,5,0 Eagles +5.5
Freddy Ferret 8,7,0 Buccaneers -3
Bucky Bluebird 7,8,0 Saints +3
Herby Hamster 6,9,0 Titans +12.5
Peter Penguin 4,11,0 Steelers -4


KURLY ., 49, 23, 3, DET, BUF, JAX, PHI, HOU
FEZZIK ., 38, 34, 3, DET, TEN, OAK, JAX, STL
TEAM WHODID., 37, 34, 4, DET, PIT, NE, PHI, SEA
SIMBOTICS ., 37, 36, 2, CIN, NE, IND, DAL, SEA
SANS SOUCI ., 39, 36, 0, DET, WAS, NYG, HOU, SEA
VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM., 37, 38, 0, OAK, CIN, JAX, MIN, SD
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE., 34, 41, 0, TEN, JAX, PHI, NYG, CLE

KURLY is 0-1 already this week....better hit his last 4 picks HARD!

Guessing of the Lines: Week 16

Guessing of the lines pick record 27-20

Away	Home	Guess	SC Line
Falcons	Lions	Falcons -7	Falcons -3.5
Raiders	Panthers	Panthers -7	Panthers -8
Saints	Cowboys	Cowboys -2.5	Cowboys -3
Titans	Packers	Packers -9.5	Packers -12.5
Vikes	Texans	Texans -7.5	Texans -7.5
Pats	Jags	Pats -14	Pats -14.5
Colts	Chiefs	Colts -4.5	Colts -6.5
Bills	Dolphins	Dolphins -4	Dolphins -4.5
Skins	Eagles	Skins -4.5	Skins -5.5
Bengals	Steelers	Steelers -4	Steelers -4
Rams	Bucs	Bucs -3	Bucs -3
Chargers	Jets	Jets -2.5	Jets -2.5
Browns	Broncos	Broncos -10	Broncos -13
Giants	Ravens	Giants -1.5	Giants -2.5
Bears	Cards	Bears -5.5	Bears -5.5
49ers	Seahawks	Seahawks -3	PK

Falcons @ Lions

How can anyone take the Lions here?  That's my point.  Take the Lions here.


Titans @ Packers

I think this ends 52-14.  The Titans aren't gonna win.


Browns @ Broncos

The Broncos have covered more spreads than any NFL team this year.  The spreads just keep climbing and climbing.  Take the Browns.


49ers @ Seahawks

You gotta give the home team a little more credit than that!  Take the birds!

Week 15 Analysis: LVH Super Contest and Mini Contest

Is this the year 14-1 wins the Mini Contest?  Probably not, but it’s not out of the question.  There were 29 5s and 104 4s in Week 1 of the Mini Contest.  These are the contestant names of the men and women who went 5-0 this week:

 

BOWANGO .

# ELEGANT BUCKETS

SCAGNELLI .

FERAL CHILD .

HANSON .

GWA .

ATLVEGAS.COM .

THE EVIL EMPIRE 1.

BIRDIE .

VAD RUN

DAVID FROHARDT -LANE 2

ABC 4 .

LT. HARRY CALLAHAN.

MEATLOVE .

JOHNNYBO.COM.

L AND M BROS..

KDLV33 .

ABC 3 .

VINNIE VIDIVICI.

SPREADAPEDIA .

INITECH .

THE VAN BUREN BOYS

KYADEVIL .

COITUS .

DONOHUE2 .

KDLV42 .

BACKNINE.

BETPUNK.COM .

 

As you can see, THE BISNESS didn’t quite make the list.  Our 2-3 week explains our Super Contest performance this year in a nutshell. 

 

Who holds the Super Contest lead after Week 15?

 

KURLY .	50.5
JAY STONES .	50
CARDIFF GIANT .	50
GFY .	50
PARTNERS .	49.5
TOOFDOC .	49
HEISENBERG .	48.5
AL SR. .	48.5
WISKY .	48.5
SALMON BELLY .	48
THERE WILL BE BLOOD.	47.5
ORANGE KRUSH .	47.5
MAKIN DOUGH .	47.5
BOWANGO .	47
SCAGNELLI .	47
NATALIE 2.0 .	46.5
3POINTDOG .	46.5
MIKE BOYD #1 .	46.5
# ELEGANT BUCKETS	46.5
FATBOY .	46.5

 

Well, it’s the same guy who led after Weeks 8, 10, 14, and 15.  Is anyone following this dude’s picks?  Let’s say for some reason your favorite fortune teller couldn’t see enough of the future to give you all of the correct spread picks each week, but he or she COULD tell you who was going to lead the Super Contest after Week 14.  Let’s say based on this tip you put $100 on every spread pick of KURLY’s throughout the season.  You would have had just 3 losing weeks, and you would have profited $2,154.59!

 

Let’s look at the individual records of THE BISNESS and the records of the rest of the guys we’ve been following.

 

Willy Walrus	0-1-0
Freddy Ferret	1-0-0
Bucky Bluebird	0-1-0
Herby Hamster	0-1-0
Peter Penguin	1-0-0
Willy Walrus	10-5-0	10
Freddy Ferret	8-7-0	8
Bucky Bluebird	7-8-0	7
Herby Hamster	6-9-0	6
Peter Penguin	4-11-0	4

 

Willy’s not out of the woods yet. Freddy can still tie his individual record.

 

 

THE BISNESS	2-3-0	2
FEZZIK	2-3-0	2
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE	2-3-0	2
SANS SOUCI	2-3-0	2
TEAM WHODID	2-3-0	2
SIMBOTICS	1-4-0	1
VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM	0-5-0	0
FEZZIK	38-34-3	39.5
TEAM WHODID	37-34-4	39
SANS SOUCI	39-36-0	39
SIMBOTICS	37-36-2	38
VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM	37-38-0	37
THE BISNESS	35-40-0	35
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE	34-41-0	34

 

 

Understandably, I’m not going to elaborate on these truly awesome Week 15 performances.

 

It was a big week for the favorites.  They went 10-5 overall (road: 4-2 home: 6-3)  Here’s the splits after Week 15:

 

Totals
W	L	T		%
40	41	2	Home Dog	49.4%
59	74	4	Home Fav.	44.5%
74	59	4	Road Dog	55.5%
41	40	2	Road Fav.	50.6%
1	3	0	Home PK	25.0%
3	1	0	Road PK	75.0%
99	112	6	Favs	47.0%
112	99	6	Dogs	53.0%
99	115	6	Home	46.4%
115	99	6	Road	53.6%
4	4	0	PK	50.0%
218	218	12	ALL	50.0%

 

That’s all for this week.  I’ll leave you with a Week 16 prop bet:  

 

Who will be the starting QB for the Jets next week?

 

Mark “(Not) The Sanchise” Sanchez +500

Tim “Better Get TiVo Cuz Ya Gonna Need It” Tebow -200

Greg “Aint Got The Looks But I’m 1 & Oh In The Books/“Tebow’s Got Sore Ribs So I Got Backup Dibs” McElroy +300