Super Contest Guessing of the Lines for Week 13

Guessing of the Lines pick record: 24-14

 

I GOT ROBBED ON MY CHARGERS PICK!  I despise the Ravens, well mostly just Flacco, to begin with.  Then he and them go and pull a miracle out of you know where when the Chargers were in “charge” of the game the whole way.  I guess this game allows me to illustrate the point of picking the “right” side and losing.  There were 73 minutes and 48 seconds of game time in this game.  The Chargers were covering the spread for 73 minutes and 47 seconds.

 

By the way, I said I didn’t like Flacco and the Ravens, but if I were to win a Ravens shirt while watching Monday night football at my favorite bar last season I wouldn’t throw that shirt away or anything.  I might even wear it occasionally.  I know you were all pondering this, well at least the Christian readers were.

 

 

 

Let’s get into my guesses.  I promised you I wouldn’t suck as badly this week.  BINGO!

 

Away	Home	Guess	SC Line
Saints	Falcons	Falcons -4	Falcons -4
Jags	Bills	Bills -7	Bills -6
Seahawks	Bears	Bears -5.5	Bears -3.5
Colts	Lions	Lions -3	Lions -5
Vikes	Pack	Pack -7.5	Pack -9
Panthers	Chiefs	Panthers -2.5	Panthers -3
Pats	Dolphins	Pats -6	Pats -7.5
Cards	Jets	Jets -5.5	Jets -4.5
49ers	Rams	49ers -6	49ers -7
Texans	Titans	Texans -7.5	Texans -6
Bucs	Broncos	Broncos -4.5	Broncos -7
Steelers	Ravens	Ravens -5.5	Ravens -7
Browns	Raiders	PK	PK
Bengals	Chargers	Chargers -1.5	Bengals -1.5
Eagles	Cowboys	Cowboys -7	Cowboys -10
Giants	Redskins	Giants -2	Giants -2.5

 

Bucs @ Broncos

 

I’m a little torn on this one.  There’s a lot going on.  Here are my thoughts:  1.  Opposing teams, especially teams that don’t play in Denver every year, tend to have a tough time with the thin air.  2.  Everyone thinks the Broncos are good.  3.  Some people think the Bucs are good.  Some don’t.  4.  The public loves to bet on Peyton.  5.  The Broncos clinch the AFC West with this win.  6.  The Bucs need this win much more than the Broncos.

 

I’m going to hope this line is 7 and not 4.5ish because the perception is the public will hammer the Broncos.  This line COULD be 7 because Vegas thinks the Broncos are that much better than the Bucs.  I have to believe there’s some sort of public bias factored into the line.  Take Bucs +7

 

Bengals @ Chargers

 

This one isn’t easy either, at first glance.  The Bengals have won 3 in a row, granted 2 of those wins came against 2 of the worst teams in the NFL in the Chiefs and Raiders.  They’re putting up lots of points each week, and they’re back in the thick of the Wild Card race.  The Chargers are starting to invent ways to lose: Norv being Norv(invented a long time ago), Rivers throwing 16 picks, the defense giving up a 4^th & 101 late in the 4^th quarter, just to name a few.  Intuitively, who really thinks the Chargers will cover this spread?  I DO!  You know damn well the public will be on the Bengals.  Follow me.  If you’re a typical public bettor, this is what you’re thinking: the Chargers find ways to lose, the Bengals essentially just need to win the game, the Bengals are playing for something, the Bengals are scoring a lot of points, the Bengals have won 3 in a row…blah blah blah.  TAKE THE CHARGERS!

 

Eagles @ Cowboys

 

VEGAS FINALLY DID IT!  The Eagles are 1-10 against the SC spread, so Vegas finally said “let’s throw out a number so big so the Eagles are forced to cover!”  I know the Eagles are pitiful.  Just take them to cover this spread.  And as @VegasRunner likes to say, sprinkle a little on the moneyline while you’re at it.

Week 12 Analysis: LVH Super Contest

If THE BISNESS had a broken axel or 2 before, the wheels have now fallen off the wagon after a winless Week 12! 

 

Willy Walrus	0-1-0
Bucky Bluebird	0-1-0
Freddy Ferret	0-1-0
Herby Hamster	0-1-0
Peter Penguin	0-1-0
Willy Walrus	8-4-0	8
Freddy Ferret	6-6-0	6
Bucky Bluebird	6-6-0	6
Herby Hamster	4-8-0	4
Peter Penguin	3-9-0	3

 

We would need to run the table the last 5 weeks go make the cash, so I guess you could say the rest of this season is strictly for individual bragging rights….WAIT A MINUTE!  I may or may not have mentioned this in a prior post.  All contestants who signed up during the early signup period are eligible for the Mini Contest.  The contestant with the best record over the final 3 weeks (15-17) of the season will win $10,000.  This gives crappy contestants, ala THE BISNESS, a reason to care down the stretch.

 

A couple of the guys we’ve been following are still very much in the race after a solid Week 14

 

TEAM WHODID	3-1-1	3.5
SIMBOTICS	3-1-1	3.5
SANS SOUCI	2-3-0	2
FEZZIK	1-3-1	1.5
VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM	1-4-0	1
THE BISNESS	0-5-0	0
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE	3-2-0	3
TEAM WHODID	33-23-4	35
VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM	32-28-0	32
SANS SOUCI	32-28-0	32
SIMBOTICS	31-27-2	32
FEZZIK	28-29-3	29.5
THE BISNESS	27-33-0	27
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE	25-35-0	25

 

With 35 points, Cousin Sal (TEAM WHODID) needs to average just over 3 points per week for the last 5 weeks to make the money.  After Week 12, there are 46 contestants still picking 60% or better.  This number is down from 70 last week.  Expect it to settle right around 25 by the time the contest is done. 

 

Bill Simmons, SANS SOUCI, and Dave Tuley all have a fighting chance at the cash, needing to average just under 4 points per week or better the rest of the way.

 

As you will see below, Al’s dad is the fresh face at the top of the leaderboard…

 

AL SR. .	40.5
THERE WILL BE BLOOD.	40
BITTERBATTER & JELLY	40
CARDIFF GIANT .	39.5
HEISENBERG .	39.5
MAKIN DOUGH .	39.5
KURLY .	39.5
MALU MAN .	39
MIKE BOYD #1 .	39
SULLY SPORTS .	39
PARTNERS .	38.5
74 PITBOSS	38
TOOFDOC .	38
ERIK ZUBKOV .	37.5
SALMON BELLY .	37.5
DIRTY DECATO .	37.5
JAY STONES .	37.5
3POINTDOG .	37.5

 

I guess Week 12 WAS the week to start hitting the Home Favorites.  They went 4-2 this week and are now creeping back towards 50% at 42.1%.  Home Underdogs and Road Favorites are now at 50% exactly.

 

Totals
W	L	T		%
32	32	2	Home Dog	50.0%
44	61	2	Home Fav.	42.1%
61	44	2	Road Dog	57.9%
32	32	2	Road Fav.	50.0%
1	2	0	Home PK	33.3%
2	1	0	Road PK	66.7%
75	91	4	Favs	45.3%
91	75	4	Dogs	54.7%
76	93	4	Home	45.1%
93	76	4	Road	54.9%
3	3	0	PK	50.0%
172	172	8	ALL	50.0%

 

That’s all for now.  I’ll be back in a day or two for some more guessing.  Last week I played pin the tail on the donkey.  I promise it won’t be as bad this week.

Week 12 Super Contest Picks of THE BISNESS & the Consensus

SuperContest Week 12
HOU 131
DET 71
DAL 64
WAS 112
NE 100
NYJ 49
CIN 81
OAK 92
PIT 115
CLE 88
IND 152
BUF 137
DEN 95
KC 102
TEN 163
JAX 74
CHI 62
MIN 105
ATL 173
TB 164
SEA 168
MIA 111
BAL 130
SD 154
SF 96
NO 197
ARI 46
STL 125
NYG 109
GB 222
CAR 103
PHI 44

Willy Walrus 8,3,0 Saints +2
Freddy Ferret 6,5,0 Titans -3
Bucky Bluebird 6,5,0 Chargers +1
Herby Hamster 4,7,0 Texans -3.5...Herby Hamster 4,8,0
Peter Penguin 3,8,0 Bills +3

Oops, I did it again.  I forgot to give you Herby's Texans pick before the Thursday's games.  I'm in the process of installing a PayPal processor so everyone who would have followed Herby's pick can give me half the amount each would have lost if I would have posted that pick.  Good talk, Russ!!

VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM., 31, 24, 0, OAK, BUF, KC, SD, GB
TEAM WHODID., 30, 22, 3, DET, WAS, TEN, ATL, MIA
SIMBOTICS ., 28, 26, 1, CLE, TB, SEA, BAL, CAR
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE., 22, 33, 0, OAK, IND, KC, TEN, STL
SANS SOUCI ., 30, 25, 0, NE, OAK, PIT, BUF, MIA
FEZZIK ., 27, 26, 2, PIT, TEN, CHI, TB, SD

Super Contest Guessing of the Lines: Week 12

Guessing of the Lines pick record: 23-12

As you can see below, my guessing is embarrassingly unacceptable this week.  In the NFL, picks are nearly never good.  If my guessing is any indicator, my picks have no chance of being good either.  I'm basically Philip Rivers in the proverbial pocket right now.  I should book a prop bet for people for this week.  Here it is:

Which will record a greater amount:

My incorrect Guessing of the Lines picks -110
Philip Rivers' picks against the Ravens     -110

Away	Home	Guess	SC Line
Texans	Lions	Texans -3	Texans -3.5
Redskins	Cowboys	Cowboys -5.5	Cowboys -3.5
Pats	Jets	Pats -10	Pats -7
Vikes	Bears	Bears -6*	Bears -4.5
Raiders	Bengals	Bengals -7.5	Bengals -8
Steelers	Browns	Steelers -2.5	Steelers -1.5
Bills	Colts	Colts -4	Colts -3
Titans	Jags	Titans -2.5	Titans -3
Broncos	Chiefs	Broncos -13.5	Broncos -10.5
Seahawks	Dolphins	Dolphins -1	Seahawks -3
Falcons	Bucs	Falcons -2.5	Falcons -1
Ravens	Chargers	Ravens -7	Ravens -1
Rams	Cards	Cards -3	Cards -2.5
49ers	Saints	Saints -2.5	49ers -2
Pack	Giants	Giants -2	Giants -3
Panthers	Eagles	Eagles -1.5	Panthers -2.5

Ravens @ Chargers

First of all, someone who's never watched an NFL game could have made a better guess than I did.  How do you miss a spread by 6 points?  That aside, Vegas is giving the Chargers more credit than they deserve.  You've got an 8-2 team playing a 4-6 team, and you just have to pick the winner?  Take the 4-6 team and just trust it's the correct side.  Go Chargers.

49ers @ Saints

I'm going to pretend Vegas is certain Alex Smith is playing, and that's why the 49ers are favored in this game.  Although, after Kaepernick's performance against one of the best defenses in the NFL this past Monday night, maybe the line wouldn't be affected depending on who is set to take the snaps for the 49ers.  The 49ers aren't as good as they were last year.  They just pounded the Bears, but that's 1 week.  Brees will take care of business in that dome down there in N'awlins.  Go Saints.

Panthers @ Eagles

I don't REALLY have to pick this game, do I?  The Panthers are super inconsisent, and the Eagles just aren't good at football.  McCoy and Vick are likely out.  I'll take the team that plays well every other week over the team who played well a couple of times last year.  Go Panthers.

By the way, the asterisk by the Bears guess was put there because I didn't know if Cutler would play or not.  I had a guess of -6 w/ Cutler and -3 w/o him.  This is me patting myself on the back thinking Vegas is 50/50 on whether he will be in or out, and thus setting the line right in the middle of my guesses.  By the way, if Cutler and Campbell are both inactive this week, who is the back up to McCown (a guy they pulled off the streets after Cutler went down)?  Ryan Leaf?

You can never go wrong when "Ryan Leaf" are the last 2 words in any written work...

RYAN LEAF!!

Week 11 Analysis: LVH Super Contest

THE BISNESS was both lucky and unlucky in Week 11. 

 

The Lions got stopped on 4^th down in their own territory, leaving just enough time so the Packers wouldn’t be able to run out the clock.  Crosby makes the field goal with seconds remaining.  The Packers cover the spread. 

 

The Bucs erased an 11 point deficit in the final 5 minutes of regulation before going on to beat the Panthers in OT.

 

The Lions was Peter’s pick.  Peter is now 3-8.  The Bucs was Willy’s pick.  Willy is now 8-3.

 

Willy Walrus	1-0-0
Bucky Bluebird	1-0-0
Freddy Ferret	0-1-0
Herby Hamster	0-1-0
Peter Penguin	0-1-0
Willy Walrus	8-3-0	8
Freddy Ferret	6-5-0	6
Bucky Bluebird	6-5-0	6
Herby Hamster	4-7-0	4
Peter Penguin	3-8-0	3

 

After our 2-3 week, we’re going to have to average a 4-1 mark for the next 6 weeks to have a chance to cash.  As I said before, we went on a run like this last year.  There’s quite a difference between having done it before and expecting to do it again.  We are sitting at 27 points right now.  4 points each week for the next 6 would put us at 51 (60%).  I still think this mark will get contestants in the cash.  When asked the other day, Dave Tuley (@ViewFromVegas) tweeted he thought 52.5 would be the cutoff this year.  Hey Dave, do you want to make a friendly, or unfriendly, wager on this?  We can split the difference and set the Over/Under at 51.75.  You get the Over and I’ll take the Under…

 

My challenge to our guys for the rest of the year still stands.  Here’s what we have to do individually to give ourselves a fighting chance:

 

Bucky Bluebird: 4-2

Freddy Ferret: 4-2

Willy Walrus: 4-2

Herby Hamster: 5-1

Peter Penguin: 5-1

 

This means Herby and Peter’s backs are against the wall.  Pick wisely, fellas!

 

For the most part, the rest of the pickers we’ve been following had solid weeks.

 

TEAM WHODID	4-1-0	4
SIMBOTICS	4-1-0	4
SANS SOUCI	3-2-0	3
FEZZIK	3-2-0	3
VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM	3-2-0	3
THE BISNESS	2-3-0	2
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE	2-3-0	2
TEAM WHODID	30-22-3	31.5
VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM	31-24-0	31
SANS SOUCI	30-25-0	30
SIMBOTICS	28-26-1	28.5
FEZZIK	27-26-2	28
THE BISNESS	27-28-0	27
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE	22-33-0	22

 

The summation of Sal, Simmons, SANS SOUCI, and Steve (Fezzik) scored superbly.  Sal and Tuley are 1 monster week away from hitting that 60% mark.  If they can average 3 points, or slightly better than that, over the next 5 weeks, a good final week will get them in the cash.  I really hope Sal is within reach of the Top 20 going into Week 17.  The weekly podcast he does with Simmons will be that much more entertaining.

 

Here are the splits after Week 11

 

Totals
W	L	T		%
27	28	1	Home Dog	49.1%
40	59	2	Home Fav.	40.6%
59	40	2	Road Dog	59.4%
28	27	1	Road Fav.	50.9%
1	2	0	Home PK	33.3%
2	1	0	Road PK	66.7%
67	84	3	Favs	44.5%
84	67	3	Dogs	55.5%
67	87	3	Home	43.6%
87	67	3	Road	56.4%
3	3	0	PK	50.0%
157	157	6	ALL	50.0%

 

Believe it or not, Road Favorites have now covered more Super Contest spreads than Home Underdogs.  After a 21-10-1 start for the Home Underdogs, the Road Favorites have gone 18-6 over the last 5 weeks.  Road Underdogs continue to cover at just under 60%.  When is this number going to regress below 55%?  I’m not sure when, but my guess is that it will fall down below this number by season’s end.  It’s certainly something worth watching over the final 6 weeks of the season.

 

If anyone is curious, and/or refuses to take the time to visit the Super Contest website, here’s the leaderboard through 11 weeks.

 

THERE WILL BE BLOOD.	37.5
MALU MAN .	37.5
KURLY .	37
MAKIN DOUGH .	37
CARDIFF GIANT .	36.5
AL SR. .	36.5
MIKE BOYD #1 .	36.5
JAY STONES .	36.5
PARTNERS .	36
BITTERBATTER & JELLY	36
HEISENBERG .	36
TOOFDOC .	35.5
SALMON BELLY .	35.5
SULLY SPORTS .	35.5
WISKY .	35
ERIK ZUBKOV .	35
MK SPORTS .	35
KETCHUP .	35
GFY .	35

I will be making my Guessing of the Lines post sometime tonight or tomorrow morning.  Also, since it's Thanksgiving and there's 3 Thursday games, there's at least a decent chance our guys pick 1 or more of those games.  If so, I will also post those picks before the Turkey Day action commences.