Week 8 Analysis: LVH SuperContest

At 1,807-1,893, the consensus finished under 50% for the 5^th time in 8 weeks.  Is that good?  A 3-2 or 4-1 week would have been huge for THE BISNESS.  Instead, we went 1-4.  Our only win was Peter’s Thursday Bucs pick.  On the bright side (if you’ll agree with me that there always is one), Peter mixed in a rare win, the contest is not yet half over, and based on how crappy everyone else’s picks continue to be, maybe we could sneak into the cash with less than 60% this season.  Hey Dana, you losers are picking at 47.5%...do you think that will make the money this season?  Stop yelling at me! ;(  Basically, each of us is going to need to go 6-3 for the rest of the year.  Is that likely?  No, it’s not.  Is it plausible.  Of course.  Last year, after Week 9 we had 21 points.  This year, after Week 8 we have 19 points.  The bottom line is:  WE NEED TO BE MORE CONSISTENT!

 

That’s enough talking about us being bad.  Let’s look at who’s crushing it so far this season:

 

KURLY .	29
SULLY SPORTS .	28.5
HEISENBERG .	28
SILENT V .	27.5
JAY STONES .	27.5
VLBD .	27
THE COUNT. .	27
THERE WILL BE BLOOD.	26.5
HIGH RROLLER STEAM.COM.	26.5
CARDIFF GIANT .	26.5
WISKY .	26
FATBOY .	26
KM SPORTS .	26
GFY .	26
BOGA DAVE .	26
KETCHUP .	26
MAKIN DOUGH .	26

 

You might want to think about following these guys at the top of the list for the rest of the season.  Last year, SANS SOUCI took an early lead in the contest and crushed picks all season long.  I expect the names at the top of this list to stay consistent this season as well.

 

 

As a whole, the contestants I’ve been following (us included) went a dismal 16-19 this week.  This week was especially frustrating.  If I would have done 5 on my own, I would have hit 4.  The pick I ended up submitting with THE BISNESS was the pick that lost.  In my Sunday post, I mentioned I liked Fezzik’s card quite a bit.  He went 4-1.  I should also mention if I would be doing the SuperContest on my own this year, I would be doing worse than THE BISNESS, so by no means am I trying to brag.  I’m just venting and making excuses for sucking.  If someone told you 4 of 5 picks were going to win and all you had to do was pick 1, and the 1 you chose ends up being the 1 that loses, that makes you extra shitty, not good but unlucky.  That’s me.

 

Records for the week and overall:

 

Peter Penguin	1-0-0
Willy Walrus	0-1-0
Bucky Bluebird	0-1-0
Freddy Ferret	0-1-0
Herby Hamster	0-1-0
Willy Walrus	6-2-0	6
Bucky Bluebird	4-4-0	4
Freddy Ferret	4-4-0	4
Herby Hamster	3-5-0	3
Peter Penguin	2-6-0	2

 

FEZZIK	4-1-0	4
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE	3-2-0	3
SANS SOUCI	3-2-0	3
TEAM WHODID	2-3-0	2
VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM	2-3-0	2
THE BISNESS	1-4-0	1
SIMBOTICS	1-4-0	1
VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM	24-16-0	24
TEAM WHODID	20-17-3	21.5
SANS SOUCI	20-20-0	20
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE	19-21-0	19
FEZZIK	18-20-2	19
THE BISNESS	19-21-0	19
SIMBOTICS	18-21-1	18.5

Let’s take a look at the splits through 8 weeks.

 

Totals
W	L	T		%
22	16	1	Home Dog	57.7%
27	46	2	Home Fav.	37.3%
46	27	2	Road Dog	62.7%
16	22	1	Road Fav.	42.3%
1	2	0	Home PK	33.3%
2	1	0	Road PK	66.7%
43	66	3	Favs	39.7%
66	43	3	Dogs	60.3%
49	62	3	Home	44.3%
62	49	3	Road	55.7%
3	3	0	PK	50.0%
114	114	6	ALL	50.0%

 

Over the last 2 weeks, Home underdogs have gone just 1-6, moving the season win % down to 57.7%.  Road underdogs are still red hot at 62.7%.  Will the Home favorites dominate in Week 9?

 

Check out the blog Thursday as I release my guesses of the lines and the actual lines.

 

I’m off to light a fire under the (_)(_)es of each of my teammates!

Week 8 Picks of THE BISNESS & the Consensus

SuperContest Week 8
MIN 18
TB 107
NE 109
STL 68
TEN 79
IND 129
GB 148
JAX 32
SD 206
CLE 83
PHI 303
ATL 123
DET 158
SEA 148
NYJ 131
MIA 216
CHI 73
CAR 144
PIT 81
WAS 220
KC 94
OAK 103
NYG 295
DAL 100
DEN 132
NO 172
SF 95
ARI 133

The consensus Top 5 this week is Eagles, Giants, Redskins, Dolphins, and Chargers in that order.  How come contestants like the NFC East so much? 

Falcons @ Eagles

The Falcons aren't going to win every game this year.  Over 40% of contestants, including us, think they'll get their 1st loss this week.  The Eagles love to repeatedly shoot themselves in the foot.  If the Eagles stay even in the turnover column today they will cover -2.5.  That's a pretty big IF though.

Giants @ Cowboys

I already gave you my thoughts on this one on Thursday.  I lean Cowboys.

Redskins @ Steelers

I'm with the consensus on this one.  I think the Redskins are a better team than the Steelers right now.  I don't know who will win, but the margin of victory will be less than 4 either way.

Dolphins @ Jets

The Dolphins is in my personal Top 2 this week, but as you'll see if you keep reading, THE BISNESS has the Jets.  I THINK the Dolphins will win by 7 or more.  I HOPE the Jets win by about SCHFIFTY-FIVE!

Chargers @ Browns

I knew the Chargers would be a trendy pick.  Resist the urge to take the considerably better team on the road.  I don't know how, but the Browns will find a way to cover the spread.  I hope I'm wrong because THE BISNESS also has the Chargers this week. 

Let's get into the picks.  I apologize for not posting Peter's pick in my Thursday post.  He had the Buccaneers +6.5, which means THE BISNESS is primed for another solid week. Who do the rest of the fellas have this week?

Willy Walrus 6,1,0 Chargers -2.5
Bucky Bluebird 4,3,0 Titans -3.5 
Freddy Ferret 4,3,0 Jets -2
Herby Hamster 3,4,0 Eagles -2.5
Peter Penguin 1,6,0 Bucs +6.5...2,6,0

It looks like a 3-2 week to me.  Right now, we're tied for 266th overall.  A 5 this week would likely get us into the Top 100 heading into the 2nd half of the season.

Who do the other dudes have this week?

VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM., 22, 13, 0, SEA, CAR, WAS, OAK, NO
SIMBOTICS ., 17, 17, 1, PHI, SEA, WAS, NYG, NO
TEAM WHODID., 18, 14, 3, TB, GB, SD, NYG, NO
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE., 16, 19, 0, SD, PHI, OAK, NYG, DEN
SANS SOUCI ., 17, 18, 0, GB, DET, WAS, NYG, DEN
FEZZIK ., 14, 19, 2, PHI, DET, MIA, CAR, DEN

All of these contestants have an opinion in the Saints/Broncos matchup, with 3 on each side.  Fezzik's card looks the best to me.  I think he has the right side in all of his picks. 

It's up to you: follow whoever you wanna follow & swallow whatever beer you wanna swallow - It's pigskin day in America! WOOOOOOOOOOOOH!!

Week 8 Guessing of the Lines

My “guessing of the lines” picks finally slowed down in Week 7 as I went 2-3 last week.  I guess that’s what I get for trying to pick 5 spreads.  This week, my guessing was a lot better (I hit 5 exactly!).  Let’s see if the picking can follow suit as I aim to go 2 for 2 in Week 8.

 

Away	Home	Guess	SC Line
Bucs	Vikes	Vikes -6.5	Vikes -6.5
Panthers	Bears	Bears -9	Bears -7.5
Chargers	Browns	Chargers -2.5	Chargers -2.5
Seahawks	Lions	Lions -1.5	Lions -2
Jags	Pack	Pack -14	Pack -14
Dolphins	Jets	Jets -3	Jets -2
Falcons	Eagles	Eagles -2.5	Eagles -2.5
Redskins	Steelers	Steelers -3	Steelers -4.5
Pats	Rams	Pats -7	Pats -7
Colts	Titans	Titans -3	Titans -3.5
Raiders	Chiefs	Chiefs -1	Chiefs -2
Giants	Cowboys	Cowboys -2.5	Giants -2.5
Saints	Broncos	Broncos -2	Broncos -6
49ers	Cards	49ers -6	49ers - 6.5

 

Giants @ Cowboys

 

The Giants have looked great as of late, winning 5 of 6 by an average margin of 15.4 points.  They’ve beaten good/above average teams (49ers & Redskins) and below average/bad teams (Bucs, Panthers, & Browns). 

I see the Cowboys are 3-3 and think that has to be a typo.  My perception is the layperson views the Cowboys as not being very good because…well, before I did a little bit of research, I didn’t think they were very good either.  As it stands, their losses have all come against very good defenses (Seahawks, Bears, & Ravens).  While the Giants have an above average defense, I would call it more opportunistic than good. 

 

So, what gives in this matchup?

The Giants are a very good team, but whenever a team is riding as high as they are, you know the common public bettor is going to be biased towards that team.  I would say the Cowboys are an above average team that the public is biased AGAINST because they haven’t done anything to catch our eyes since Day 1 when they upset the Giants.  The Cowboys need this game to get above .500, to gain a game on a divisional opponent, and to gain some confidence heading into the remainder of the season.  Although it’s tough to pick against one of the most clutch QBs of his generation in Eli, who will be extra motivated after already having lost to the Cowboys once this year, I gotta believe the Cowboys are the correct pick here.

 

Take Cowboys +2.5

Saints @ Broncos

 

How big of a lead for the Saints is safe going into the 4^th quarter against the Broncos, 30?  I guess this line is so high because people believe Peyton will be able to pick apart the dreadful Saints defense all game long.  It seems like Vegas has been giving the Saints more credit lately…and now it seems like they’re getting less credit than they deserve against the Broncos?  This thoroughly confuses me. 

Great QBs and bad defenses leads me to believe the field goal units will get plenty of rest in this game.  So, which team will win by a TD or more?  Since Vegas decided to give the Broncos more credit, I’m going to trust their judgment.

Take Broncos -6

Week 7 Analysis: LVH SuperContest

What do ya know?  For the 4^th week out of 7, the consensus picked under 50%, bringing the overall pick % to a shameful 49.8%.  If anyone’s curious, here are the pick totals and percentages by week so far:

 

Right	Wrong
1692	1877	47.4%	Week 7
1983	1727	53.5%	Week 6
1629	2081	43.9%	Week 5
2297	1323	63.5%	Week 4
1596	1837	46.5%	Week 3
1768	1767	50.0%	Week 2
1632	2064	44.2%	Week 1
12597	12676	49.8%	Overall

 

In Week 7, THE BISNESS picked 4 early Sunday games.  Every one of our picks was looking good late in the 4^th quarter on Sunday.  From my experience last year, I knew we could drop from what looked like 4-0 to 2-2 in a heartbeat.  That’s nearly what happened.  In fact, we could have easily ended up 1-3 in that early session.  The Browns had a TD pass go right through a guy’s hands.  The Bucs caught a game-tying TD that didn’t count because the receiver went out of bounds, came back in, and was the 1^st to touch the ball.  The Bills had the Titans 4^th and 9 from the 15 yard line with about 1:10 to play.  If they make the stop, we get the point.  I guess you could say we lucked out twice and got screwed once for a net luck factor of +1.  We’ll accept that and our 3 points for Week 7 and move on.  One of these weeks we’re going to pull out a 5 and be right in the thick of things.  All things considered, we’re 13-7 (65%) over the last 4 weeks.  So, what do you think?  Is it time to fade us or follow us?

 

Here’s a quick look at the leaderboard through 7 weeks.  Based on the overall standings so far, I still believe 60% will get contestants in the money.  The more I look at the contest, the more I think it’s a larger collection of rich folks and a smaller collection of smart folks.

 

HEISENBERG .	25
KURLY .	25
JAY STONES .	24.5
SILENT V .	24.5
VLBD .	24
FATBOY .	24
BILL REISER .	23.5
CARDIFF GIANT .	23.5
THERE WILL BE BLOOD.	23.5
HIGH RROLLER STEAM.COM.	23.5
INSPIN.COM .	23.5
SULLY SPORTS .	23.5
THE NUTS .	23
MAKIN DOUGH .	23
WISKY .	23
KM SPORTS .	23
GFY .	23
THE COUNT. .	23
BOGA DAVE .	23

 

Tuley (VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM) dropped out of the Top 20 with a 1-4 week.  He is now tied for 26^th with a record of 22-13-0.  Let’s take a look at how the contestants we’ve been following did in Week 7 and are doing overall.

 

THE BISNESS	3-2-0	3
SIMBOTICS	3-2-0	3
TEAM WHODID	2-2-1	2.5
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE	2-3-0	2
SANS SOUCI	3-2-0	3
FEZZIK	1-3-1	1.5
VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM	1-4-0	1
VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM	22-13-0	22
TEAM WHODID	18-14-3	19.5
THE BISNESS	18-17-0	18
SIMBOTICS	17-17-1	17.5
SANS SOUCI	17-18-0	17
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE	16-19-0	16
FEZZIK	14-19-2	15

 

Willy Walrus	1-0-0
Bucky Bluebird	1-0-0
Freddy Ferret	1-0-0
Herby Hamster	0-1-0
Peter Penguin	0-1-0
Willy Walrus	6-1-0	6
Bucky Bluebird	4-3-0	4
Freddy Ferret	4-3-0	4
Herby Hamster	3-4-0	3
Peter Penguin	1-6-0	1

 

THE BISNESS has a little bit of everything going on.  Willy’s been hot all year, Bucky has been hot as of late, hitting 4 in a row after losing his first 3, Freddy has been solid as he refuses to win or lose 3 in a row, Herby is on a 3 pick skid, and Peter Penguin is slipping deeper and deeper into his hypothermia and frostbite-induced Antarctic coma.  IT’S TIME TO HEAT UP, PETER!

 

Bill Simmons was the only one of the bunch to keep pace with us this week.  Just when I thought this crew was going to start being more consistent, they went the other way.

 

Let’s take a look at all the Home/Road and Fav/Dog splits through Week 7.

 

Totals
W	L	T		%
21	14	1	Home Dog	59.7%
24	39	2	Home Fav.	38.5%
39	24	2	Road Dog	61.5%
14	21	1	Road Fav.	40.3%
1	2	0	Home PK	33.3%
2	1	0	Road PK	66.7%
38	58	3	Favs	39.9%
58	38	3	Dogs	60.1%
45	53	3	Home	46.0%
53	45	3	Road	54.0%
3	3	0	PK	50.0%
101	101	6	ALL	50.0%

 

Home dogs took a hit this week going 0-4 ATS, while road dogs continued to fare well at 5-3-1.  As you can see, dogs are still covering at just over 60% for the year.  Will Week 8 be the week for the home favorites, or is it simply the “year of the dog” in the NFL?  The SuperContest lines come out later today.  From the looks of it right now, there will likely be 3 or 4 home underdogs.  One of those, however, is the Rams “hosting” the Patriots in LONDON.  Be sure to factor this venue into your thought process if you plan to pick a side in this game.

 

That’s it for now.  See ya tomorrow for another edition of “guess how Vegas will set the lines to maximize the possibility of getting equal amounts of money on each side.”