GUESS THE LINES AHEAD OF TIME...AND ANALYZE WHEN YOU MISFIRE BADLY

Did I say Dolphins +1.5?  I meant Dolphins +17.5.  That “7” key really sticks on my keyboard.  It looks like rather than offering my exquisite advice on the Dolphins/Cowboys extraordinary preseason tussle, I should have offered that Ricky fella some companionship.

In reference to the Over/Under picks/rationale I gave yesterday, if you’re looking for a fairly in-depth analysis of all of the NFL team season win total Over/Unders (I gotta think of a way to shorten this modifier) for this year, check out the B.S. Report podcast with Bill Simmons.  Part 1 of the 2 part series came out yesterday, and I believe Part 2 comes out today.  In Part 1, Bill and Cousin Sal break down the Over/Unders for just the NFC teams.  In Part 2, they will hash out the AFC.  Also, as the NFL season gets underway, usually Monday or Tuesday of each week Bill and Sal will do their weekly “guess the lines” B.S. Report podcast in which they discuss NFL results from the week before, discuss Bill’s success, or lack thereof, with his SUPERCONTEST picks, and then try to guess what Vegas will set all of the NFL spreads at for the coming week.

Last year, as I started to look at matchups for the coming week, I found it beneficial to guess the lines ahead of time myself. Early each week, I’ll try to post my guesses as well as the actual lines and then give my take on why I guessed what I guessed, if I was off by a significant amount, why I was off, etc.  If you’re keeping up with the NFL, 80-90% of the time your guesses should be within 3 points of the actual line.  If you are further off than that, you need to either do some additional research before you start deciding which side of the line to hit OR heavily consider hanging up your gambling shoes.  Two of the biggest reasons I’ve found for a large deviation between my guesses and the actual lines are 1) significant injuries for 1 team or 2) one team matches up much better with the other.

With both of these, it is extremely difficult to obtain perfect information.  No matter how players injuries are listed on the various sites that list NFL player injuries, you’re never going to know the complete truth.  Players injury statuses aren’t accurate with respect to their actual injury statuses.  They are consistent with how the front office wants to portray their injuries to gain an edge on their upcoming opponent(s).  Unless you’re in that locker room or practicing with those players every day, you just don’t know…but Vegas does. 

The idea of matchup deficiencies follows this same line of thought.  No matter how well you think you know the Chargers offensive line and special teams, Vegas has its laundry list of metrics it will use to outsmart you a vast majority of the time.

In these 2 areas, Vegas WILL KNOW MORE THAN THE AVERAGE BETTOR 99% of the time.  Don’t get me wrong.  There are professional bettors out there that are very much on top of their games and can gain an edge in this department.  But for you and me, if you try to guess a line and completely whiff, give Vegas the benefit of the doubt and favor the opposite side of the line.  Don’t act proud and stand firm with your judgment.  Let Vegas do the work for you.

Drop by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week for the first “guessing of the lines” blog post.

NFL TEAM WIN TOTAL OVER/UNDERS...AND A WILD HAIR PICK FOR TONIGHT

How many games is your favorite team going to win this year? 

Sure, it's fun to toss a few dollars on a preseason game here and there, but who really knows how long the starters will stay in, how much effort their front office is expecting them to give, how much effort they are willing to give... you get the picture.  In lue of wagering on preseason NFL spreads, you may have just as much fun (and luck for that matter) flipping coins with your buddy Ricky in the alleyway.

Let's see what Vegas thinks, and what I think, about how many games each NFL team is going to win this year.  Generally, when a lay bettor looks at Over/Under bets, there's rarely a 50/50 unbiased approach taken.  This is just human nature.  I mean who looks at his or her favorite team and asks oneself, "How many games are the Wildebeests going to lose this year?"  No one!  People generally want teams to win more, to score more points, etc.  That's just the way it is.  So naturally, Vegas is going to compensate for that. 

Vegas sets an Over/Under win total amount for each NFL team before the season starts.  If you add up the total of all of those Over/Unders you get 261 total wins.  Since every team plays 16 games this year, there are 512 total wins and losses to be had, and there WILL BE 256 total wins and 256 total losses, barring the occasional tie, but still, total wins must equal total losses.  If you do the math, 512-261=251.  What does this mean?  It simply means Vegas has compensated for the general bias people have for wanting to pick Overs. 

How should this shape your Over/Under betting strategy?  Well, if you are a gamble-aholic and think you need to bet every Over/Under for every team's season win total, and have no way of deciding which way to go on any of the teams, TAKE ALL OF THE UNDERS!  Again, you might decide rolling dice with Ricky is more worth your while.  That's up to you.  But if someone forces you to bet 'em all, take the Unders.

I'm no expert on picking Over/Unders, but I am pretty good at math.  The math doesn't lie. 

With that in mind, I'll take a stab at a handful of the Over/Unders for NFL teams this season.

1. Let's contradict what I just said and get it out of the way right away.  Take:

Bills Over 8.5 EVEN

Everyone remembers the cold finish the Bills had last year, so why is this number elevated at 8.5.  I would expect it to be 7.5, which tells me Vegas is higher on the Bills than me.  I'm going to trust their opinion and take the EVEN odds and the Over 8.5.

2. Everybody and their grandparents think Peyton Manning can win at least 2 more games with the Broncos supporting cast than Tebow and the fellas did last year.  Yet, Vegas is holding this line at 9 wins.  Take:

Broncos Under 9 -110

3.  I never like to pick agianst Drew Brees, but I feel like I have to.  With all that has gone on with Saints this offseason, the number 9.5 just seems too high.  Take:

Saints Under 9.5 -105

4.  The Giants won the Super Bowl last year and are #1 in the preseason Power Rankings according to ESPN.com.  So, take the over on their wins at 9, right?  That's a gimme...  WRONG!  Remember that horribly inconsistent team that barely snuck into the playoffs last year.  Don't expect them to get that lucky this year.  The absolute most wins they have this year is 9.  Take:

Giants Under 9 +110

5.  Take:

Raiders Over 7 -120.  Why?  For no other reason than because...IT'S THE RIGHT PLAY!

If picking Over/Unders on team season win totals just doesn't cut if for you, and you need some LiveAction! on an "actual" NFL game, my only lean for the 3 games slated for tonight is:

Dolphins +1.5

FREE NFL SPREAD PICKS ALL SEASON FROM A TOP 20 SUPERCONTEST TEAM

Welcome SUPERCONTEST followers, NFL fans, and NFL handicappers.  The purpose of this blog is to provide you with 5 FREE NFL SPREAD PICKS/WEEK, a weekly rundown of the LVH SUPERCONTEST (contestant movements, overall leaderboard, how contestant picks faired overall against the house, etc.), and a humorous blog post here and there that sheds a unique light on current events in the NFL.

Q: Wait...what?  Dana, you said you're giving us free picks every week, but why the hell would anyone want that from you?!

A: For those that don't know, 4 of my friends and I (nicknamed THEBISNESS) participated in the HILTON SUPERCONTEST last NFL season.  We ended up picking exactly 60% (51/85) of spreads correctly over the 17-Week NFL Regular Season in 2011/2012.  For those of you who understand spread betting fairly well, you know how respectable this number is and how profitable you could have been if you would have just followed our picks last year.  For those of you who are novice bettors or who know very little about betting at all, you may not understand how significant this 60% figure is.  Let me put this in perspective.  Out of 517 contestants last year, my team, THEBISNESS, finished tied for 16th place.  The SUPERCONTEST is widely regarded as the "world's ultimate pro football handicapping contest."  The best of the best NFL handicappers put up $1,500 apiece to join this contest each year.  While none of my buddies were bold enough to foot the $1,500 bill alone, we were all willing to split the buy-in, and picks, and give it our best shot last year.  We may have a couple new members this year, but we're ready to roll again in 2012/2013....You won't have to worry about the strength of our picks this year as our two best pickers are back from last year.

That's my little spiel.  You can take or leave the picks.

Throughout the season, I will be splitting out the picks by participant.  I'm going to give each of my buddies and I an alias, so if you want to follow the guy with the hot hand from week to week, you can.  Or if you're a pure gambler, you can follow the guy with the coolest alias and let it ride.  PARTY!!  Each of us will make 1 pick per week for a total of 5.

Maybe you just want to follow the contest, or you want to follow the picks from the leaders of the contest, or maybe you just want to come back purely for the humorous written content.  All of this will be available from week to week.  So, join Bucky Bluebird, Freddy Ferret, Herby Hamster, Peter Penguin, and Willy Walrus as THEBISNESS makes another run at the SUPERCONTEST in 2012/2013!

For more information on the LVH SUPERCONTEST 2012/2013 edition, visit http://www.thelvh.com/supercontest.