How many games is your favorite team going to win this year?
Sure, it's fun to toss a few dollars on a preseason game here and there, but who really knows how long the starters will stay in, how much effort their front office is expecting them to give, how much effort they are willing to give... you get the picture. In lue of wagering on preseason NFL spreads, you may have just as much fun (and luck for that matter) flipping coins with your buddy Ricky in the alleyway.
Let's see what Vegas thinks, and what I think, about how many games each NFL team is going to win this year. Generally, when a lay bettor looks at Over/Under bets, there's rarely a 50/50 unbiased approach taken. This is just human nature. I mean who looks at his or her favorite team and asks oneself, "How many games are the Wildebeests going to lose this year?" No one! People generally want teams to win more, to score more points, etc. That's just the way it is. So naturally, Vegas is going to compensate for that.
Vegas sets an Over/Under win total amount for each NFL team before the season starts. If you add up the total of all of those Over/Unders you get 261 total wins. Since every team plays 16 games this year, there are 512 total wins and losses to be had, and there WILL BE 256 total wins and 256 total losses, barring the occasional tie, but still, total wins must equal total losses. If you do the math, 512-261=251. What does this mean? It simply means Vegas has compensated for the general bias people have for wanting to pick Overs.
How should this shape your Over/Under betting strategy? Well, if you are a gamble-aholic and think you need to bet every Over/Under for every team's season win total, and have no way of deciding which way to go on any of the teams, TAKE ALL OF THE UNDERS! Again, you might decide rolling dice with Ricky is more worth your while. That's up to you. But if someone forces you to bet 'em all, take the Unders.
I'm no expert on picking Over/Unders, but I am pretty good at math. The math doesn't lie.
With that in mind, I'll take a stab at a handful of the Over/Unders for NFL teams this season.
1. Let's contradict what I just said and get it out of the way right away. Take:
Bills Over 8.5 EVEN
Everyone remembers the cold finish the Bills had last year, so why is this number elevated at 8.5. I would expect it to be 7.5, which tells me Vegas is higher on the Bills than me. I'm going to trust their opinion and take the EVEN odds and the Over 8.5.
2. Everybody and their grandparents think Peyton Manning can win at least 2 more games with the Broncos supporting cast than Tebow and the fellas did last year. Yet, Vegas is holding this line at 9 wins. Take:
Broncos Under 9 -110
3. I never like to pick agianst Drew Brees, but I feel like I have to. With all that has gone on with Saints this offseason, the number 9.5 just seems too high. Take:
Saints Under 9.5 -105
4. The Giants won the Super Bowl last year and are #1 in the preseason Power Rankings according to ESPN.com. So, take the over on their wins at 9, right? That's a gimme... WRONG! Remember that horribly inconsistent team that barely snuck into the playoffs last year. Don't expect them to get that lucky this year. The absolute most wins they have this year is 9. Take:
Giants Under 9 +110
5. Take:
Raiders Over 7 -120. Why? For no other reason than because...IT'S THE RIGHT PLAY!
If picking Over/Unders on team season win totals just doesn't cut if for you, and you need some LiveAction! on an "actual" NFL game, my only lean for the 3 games slated for tonight is:
Dolphins +1.5
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