Think about it going into Week 9. Figuratively speaking, you could have given the Chiefs, Jags, Bengals, and Cardinals 1,000 points ATS and most people wouldn’t have taken them. All of those teams have been horrible for at least the last few weeks and in some cases for the whole season. What did we see for lines in Week 9 in games these “bad” teams were “playing”? The Chiefs and Cardinals were getting more than a TD on the road, and the Jags and Bengals were getting more than a FG at home. People in the Super Contest, and everywhere for that matter, either loaded up on the favorites or stayed away. Again, no matter how much value there may seem to be on “bad” teams, people will consistently spreads of their competition. The Broncos and Bears were each picked 200+ times in the Super Contest.
Go to Google and search for how Vegas fared against bettors this week. It won’t be tough to find a plethora of articles talking about how Vegas got crushed by NFL bettors this week. I believe it was the worst week of the year for Vegas. When 70% of the better teams cover, Vegas is generally going to take a beating. What do I mean by better teams? At this point in the season, if you looked at the Week 9 matchups and picked who the “better” team was you would probably say Chargers, Broncos, Ravens, Packers, Texans, toss up between Dolphins and Colts, Lions, Bears, Redskins, Bucs, toss up between Seahawks and Vikes, Giants, Falcons, and a toss up between Eagles and Saints. So, out of the 11 games where there was a fairly clear understanding of who the better team was, 9 of those “better” teams covered. The result: Vegas got crushed because generally many more people play chalk (favorites) than underdogs.
The awesome week by
the consensus still only improved the overall season pick percentage to
50.3%. It’s going to take a lot of work
to jump up to the “making money” threshold of 53% by season’s end.
THE BISNESS gained a
much needed 4 points in Week 9 which gets us back above 50% at 23-22.
As I said above, the
top 5 contestants went an unimaginable 4-21 in Week 9. So, who are the fresh faces on the post-Week
9 leaderboard?
| THERE WILL BE BLOOD. | 31.5 |
| CARDIFF GIANT . | 30.5 |
| MIKE BOYD #1 . | 30.5 |
| KURLY . | 30 |
| WISKY . | 30 |
| KETCHUP . | 30 |
| GFY . | 30 |
| MAKIN DOUGH . | 30 |
| JAY STONES . | 29.5 |
| SDQL MASTER . | 29.5 |
| HEISENBERG . | 29 |
| THE COUNT. . | 29 |
| THE NUTS . | 29 |
| DM GOLFER . | 29 |
While the previous
leaders took a bath in their own blood, contestant “THERE WILL BE BLOOD” stabbed
a perfect 5-0 week to steal the reigns as the overall leader.
Here’s a look at the
Week 9 and overall records of Tuley, Cousin Sal, Bill Simmons, Chad Millman,
Steve Fezzik, last year’s winner SANS SOUCI, and THE BISNESS:
| Willy Walrus | 1-0-0 | |
| Bucky Bluebird | 1-0-0 | |
| Freddy Ferret | 1-0-0 | |
| Peter Penguin | 1-0-0 | |
| Herby Hamster | 0-1-0 | |
| Willy Walrus | 7-2-0 | 7 |
| Bucky Bluebird | 5-4-0 | 5 |
| Freddy Ferret | 5-4-0 | 5 |
| Herby Hamster | 3-6-0 | 3 |
| Peter Penguin | 3-6-0 | 3 |
| SANS SOUCI | 5-0-0 | 5 |
| THE BISNESS | 4-1-0 | 4 |
| FEZZIK | 4-1-0 | 4 |
| TEAM WHODID | 3-2-0 | 3 |
| SIMBOTICS | 3-2-0 | 3 |
| VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM | 2-3-0 | 2 |
| NOW 100% SWEAT FREE | 1-4-0 | 1 |
| VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM | 26-19-0 | 26 |
| SANS SOUCI | 25-20-0 | 25 |
| TEAM WHODID | 23-19-3 | 24.5 |
| FEZZIK | 22-21-2 | 23 |
| THE BISNESS | 23-22-0 | 23 |
| SIMBOTICS | 21-23-1 | 21.5 |
| NOW 100% SWEAT FREE | 20-25-0 | 20 |
Is SANS SOUCI going to
use the momentum from a 5-0 week in Week 9 to make a run at that #1 spot for
the 2nd year in a row? At
just 55.5% overall, it’s unlikely, but if you followed those guys (it’s 4 guys
that make up SANS SOUCI) at all last year you know they’re capable of ripping
off 20/25 picks in a 5 week stretch.
What do the splits
look like after 9 weeks? As you can see,
the home underdogs have regressed significantly, down to 52.2% for the
season! I guess that’s what happens when
home underdogs go 2-11 over a 3 week stretch.
You knew it would happen sometime.
If you picked Weeks 7-9 to start taking all of the road favorites, you
deserve a “Good job by you, Mikey!!” from the Mad Dog. The road underdogs are hitting at just under
60% still, even after just a 3-6 week.
| Totals | ||||
| W | L | T | % | |
| 23 | 21 | 1 | Home Dog | 52.2% |
| 33 | 49 | 2 | Home Fav. | 40.5% |
| 49 | 33 | 2 | Road Dog | 59.5% |
| 21 | 23 | 1 | Road Fav. | 47.8% |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | Home PK | 33.3% |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | Road PK | 66.7% |
| 53 | 70 | 3 | Favs | 43.3% |
| 70 | 53 | 3 | Dogs | 56.7% |
| 56 | 70 | 3 | Home | 44.6% |
| 70 | 56 | 3 | Road | 55.4% |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | PK | 50.0% |
| 129 | 129 | 6 | ALL | 50.0% |
That’s it for this
week’s analysis. Come back tomorrow for
a little guessing of the lines.
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