Herby's Week 4 LOCK OF THE WEEK

This better be good...coming off a loss!

Herby Hamster:

"What an awful week for the NFL. At least the NFL got one thing right and got the professional officials back on the field. However, they still owe the Packers a win. I'm going to switch things up this week and pick an underdog. My pick this week is the Saints +7.5.

We're talking about 2 of the best QBs I have ever seen. I expect it to be a shootout.

Style of the play:  The Packers defense looks better than last year's version...but look at the quarterbacks they have played against: Alex Smith, Jay "I quit on my team consistently" Cutler, and Russell "all I do is complete Hail Marys to Golden Tate" Wilson. How will the defense fair against one of the league's best QBs?

This game mans A LOT to both teams. The Saints need a win, and the Packers don't want to fall 2 games behind the leaders in the NFC North. Expect a high scoring shootout.  Prediction: Brees thows a TD late to cover."

 

OK, Herby, OK

 

 

 

In other news, I'll give you my QUICK opinions on the marquee betting games of the week and the picks of THE BISNESS.

 

Week 4 Consensus:

 

SuperContest Week 4

BAL 27
CLE 24
NE 278
BUF 88
DET 29
MIN 219
ATL 65
CAR 126
SF 262
NYJ 72
KC 144
SD 130
HOU 80
TEN 57
SEA 103
STL 171
ARI 144
MIA 167
DEN 141
OAK 77
CIN 207
JAX 118
GB 94
NO 71
TB 99
WAS 142
PHI 126
NYG 170
DAL 80
CHI 109

 

NE @ BUF

 

People see a small number (4 isn't really a small number in the NFL) for Tom Brady to cover, and they hawk on it.  I hate picking against Tommy, but I think the Bills are 57/43 to cover this one.

 

MIN @ DET

 

Everyone's making plays off the Stafford injury.  I think Vegas thinks the Lions can win by a TD @ home w/ or w/out Stafford.  6.5 is a lot of points to cover for a team that hasn't shown much this year.  Stafford's not playing, and the spread is now 4.5, but does Vegas really think the Lions will win by exactly 5 or 6?  They don't, and they don't care.  Line movements influence sudden action, and sudden action bets favor Vegas in the long run. 

 

I really like the Chiefs -1.

 

I love the Titans +12.

 

I LOVE the Rams +2.5

 

I love the Bucs -3...why are people high on the Redskins?  RG3 had a solid game Week 1 against a "poor"ous Saints D. Then, the Redskins lost twice.  Josh Freeman is a better QB than RG3, and each of their supporting casts are equivalent

 

I love Philly.  They've looked and played like shit all year so far, yet they're 2-1.  America saw Eli do what he did last week, and they're cupping his balls because of it.  Who do you suppose I like?

 

THE BISNESS's picks:

 

Herby Hamster: Saints +7.5

Willy Walrus: Chargers +1

Freddy Ferret: Giants +2.5

Bucky Bluebird: Rams: +2.5

Peter Penguin: Buccaneers -3

Week 4 Guessing of the Lines

Away	Home	Guess	SC Line
Browns	Ravens	Ravens -14.5	Ravens -12
Panthers	Falcons	Falcons -9.5	Falcons -7
Patriots	Bills	Patriots -5.5	Patriots -4
Vikings	Lions	Lions -7	Lions -6.5
Titans	Texans	Texans -14	Texans -12
Chargers	Chiefs	Chargers -3.5	Chiefs -1
49ers	Jets	49ers -2.5	49ers -4
Seahawks	Rams	Seahawks -1	Seahawks -2.5
Dolphins	Cardinals	Cardinals -11.5	Cardinals -6.5
Raiders	Broncos	Broncos -4.5	Broncos-6.5
Bengals	Jaguars	Bengals -4.5	Bengals -2.5
Saints	Packers	Packers -10.5	Packers -7.5
Redskins	Buccaneers	Buccaneers -3	Buccaneers -3
Giants	Eagles	Eagles -3	Eagles -2.5
Bears	Cowboys	Cowboys -4	Cowboys -3.5

I missed a bunch by 2+ points this week, too many to elaborate on them all.  Let's just focus on the 2 spreads I missed by the most.

Dolphins @ Cardinals

Well, every player on every team is questionable already.  I thought that usually came in Week 5.  Reggie Bush is the only notable.  The line is 6.5, so he will play.  I whiffed bad on this one.  I thought Vegas would give the Cards the respect they kinda deserve and push this spread deep deep into double digits.  The half point is going to suck in a lot of "pickers."  Cognitively, this spread could and should be much higher.  There's so many reasons to take the Cards.  FIGHT THE URGE AND TAKE THE DOLPHINS! 

Saints @ Packers

Everyone (except Seahawk diehards) knows the Packers got f'ed in the ay-yay Monday night.  The quick turnaround for the Pack shifts this spread more towards just a TD than the 2 teams respective levels of play this year warrant.  1) You can't favor the Pack by less than a TD because they can explode on anyone instantaneously.  2) They're at home.  Take the Pack because it's easy....NO, DON'T!!

The Saints won't make the playoffs this year.  The Saints aren't good this year.  The Saints miss their coach right now...blah blah blah...THE SAINTS WILL BE GOOD IN THIS GAME! They WILL COVER this spread.

That's all for now.  After a devastating, and horribly inordinate, loss last week, Herby may offer his modest opinion (pick) before the weekend.  I've spoken with him this week, and he is a little disheartened after falling to just 77.5% in his last 20 SuperContest picks.

...Stay Tuned...

Week 3 Analysis: LVH SuperContest

What did we learn from Week 3?  EVERYTHING GOT WORSE: THE BISNESS’s record, Herby’s pick lost (guess he’s human after all), the consensus record (43.07% picked correctly this week), the replacement officials, you name it!  Home underdogs continued to crush spreads, going 5-2-1 in Week 3.  Again, we didn’t pick a single Home underdog.  There’s likely going to be 5 Home underdogs again this week.  Dear THE BISNESS, I say we just take them all and quit our individual picks.  What do you guys think?......(crickets)  We are 5-10 right now, and 1/8 of contestants are still behind us (93/745)!  I think the LVH should cancel this atrocity and refund everyone’s money.  I’m joking.  Instead of going on and on about who sucks in this contest, let’s take a look at the leaderboard for once.

 

3POINTDOG .	13
THE NUTS .	12
4 RODY .	11.5
OTIS P. DRIFTWOOD	11.5
FRANKLYN PIERCE	11.5
HIGH RROLLER STEAM.COM.	11.5
KURLY .	11.5
1ST PLACE .	11
BUSKY .	11
CLEVTA .	11
JUST A GOOD TIME!	11
THERE WILL BE BLOOD.	10.5
VLBD .	10.5
FAST EDDIE SPORTS.	10.5
MANNY MOE .	10.5
THE BETTING DOCTOR	10.5
CHECKMATE .	10.5
ANCRCHIOTS UNITED.	10.5

 

I didn’t post Top 20 because there’s 500 contestants tied for 19^th.  I’m joking.  There’s only 29.  After a 5-0 week, participating under the alias “VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM,” Dave Tuley (@ViewFromVegas) is one of those 29 tied for 19^th.  Look him up.  He does a fairly in-depth analysis of the SuperContest leaderboard from week to week.

 

Let’s take a look at the splits after Week 3

Totals
W	L	T		%
13	5	1	Home Dog	71%
12	14	1	Home Fav.	46%
14	12	1	Road Dog	54%
5	13	1	Road Fav.	29%
0	2	0	Home PK	0%
2	0	0	Road PK	100%
17	27	2	Favs	39%
27	17	2	Dogs	61%
25	19	2	Home	57%
19	25	2	Road	43%
2	2	0	PK	50%
46	46	4	ALL	50%

 

As you can see, Vegas essentially evened out the large disparity between Home favorite/Road underdog in Week 3.  Vegas must be adjusting these splits back towards the mean 1 week at a time, as the Home underdogs continue to cover SuperContest spreads at over 70%.  Is Week 4 the week that Road favorites start restoring a bit of normalcy?

 

4 teams (Buccaneers, Cardinals, Falcons, and Texans) are still perfect against SuperContest spreads after Week 3, and 3 teams (Eagles, Lions, and Saints) are winless against SuperContest spreads.  It will be interesting to see if the lines reflect Vegas’s desire, or lack thereof, to regress these 7 teams’ ATS records in Week 4.

 

Herby and Willy are no longer perfect, Freddy’s on the board, and Bucky and Peter might be getting voted off!

 

Herby Hamster	0-1-0
Willy Walrus	0-1-0
Freddy Ferret	1-0-0
Bucky Bluebird	0-1-0
Peter Penguin	0-1-0

 

Overall

Herby Hamster	2-1-0
Willy Walrus	2-1-0
Freddy Ferret	1-2-0
Bucky Bluebird	0-3-0
Peter Penguin	0-3-0

 

How did other notables pick this week?

 

THE BISNESS	1-4-0
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE	3-2-0
VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM	5-0-0
TEAM WHODID	1-3-1
SIMBOTICS	2-2-1
FEZZIK	2-2-1

Overall

VIEWFROM VEGAS.COM	10-5-0	10
TEAM WHODID	7-6-2	8
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE	7-8-0	7
SIMBOTICS	6-8-1	6.5
THE BISNESS	5-10-0	5
FEZZIK	4-10-1	4.5

 

There were 8 contestants that went 5-0 this week, and 35 that went 0-5.  WHAT?!  There are 3 contestants tied for last with 2 points, “TWO GUYS 1 BOAT,” “KDLV33,” and “KDLV42.”  Would I be correct to infer that the KDLV entries are the same guy?  “I’m gonna join the SuperContest this year…TWICE…and, and… pick almost the exact same games with both entries!  This is such a good idea!”  I’m going to assume this person is NOT A DAY TRADER.

I would throw out my $.02 about the replacement ref situation after the complete and utter debacle that ensued last night, but I have a feeling the blogspot server would crash when I try to submit a post that has more pages than our national debt has dollars.

 

Wednesday or Thursday night, I will post the Week 4 Guessing of the Lines.  Come again then

Week 3 Picks of THE BISNESS and the Consensus

Here's the consensus picks:

SuperContest Week 3

NYG         14
CAR         113
CHI          65
STL         145
DAL         158
TB            46
SF           197
MIN         102
DET         191
TEN         60
WAS         50
CIN         177
NYJ         181
MIA           96
NO           70
KC           52
BUF         73
CLE         151
IND         154
JAX          38
PHI          69
ARI          255
SD           84
ATL         193
HOU       139
DEN       140
PIT         154
OAK         75
BAL         104
NE          114
GB          180
SEA         80

It's tough to hone in on just a few games this week.  There's quite a few considerable margins in pick totals.  Let's just hash some of them out.

I don't know where to start.  Let's start with this:  THERE'S DONKEYS ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THIS CONTEST THIS YEAR!  This is the last time I'm going to say it, so just assume I feel this way every week unless I tell you differently...COLLECTIVELY, CONTESTANTS WILL GO SUB-50% AGAIN!

Giants @ Panthers

Let's just say there were a lot of injuries on the Giants side, and the Panthers were primed for a letdown after what they thought was an extraordinary victory over the Payton-less, helpless Saints.  Cam was overconfident in his first "after hours" NFL start.  The Panthers game plan sucked and so did their execution of that sucky game plan.  I apologize on behalf of Bucky for falling into such an easily identifiable trap.  0-3 is tough to recover from.  GOOD LUCK!

Rams @ Bears

Let's keep this short.  A lot more SC contestants like the Rams, and so do I.  Again, I think the half point sucked people in much like it did Patriot backers last week, but that won't matter.  The Rams defense will keep them in it early and YES IF THEY GET A WILD SLIVER IN THEIR ASSES THEY COULD WIN THIS GAME!  It's a rare occurrence, but the consensus has it right.

Buccaneers @ Cowboys

WHAT DO PEOPLE SEE IN THE COWBOYS?!  I can't wait until Josh Freeman beats the spread, AND the Cowboys straight up, with a last minute drive that sends Cousin Sal into an unprecedented rage followed by a classic Josh Freeman B.S. Report voice mail (if you've never heard one of these, please find one or more of them on youtube.... or just listen to the B.S. Report next Monday or Tuesday).

49ers @ Vikings

I don't know how, but this will happen....The Vikings will cover 7.  They are worse than the 49ers in every way you can imagine, yet they will pull some shit and cover at home.  Side note: a couple members of THE BISNESS may or may not be attending this game.

Lions @ Titans

This is classic "Lions should be playing better than they are and should crush the Titans" thinking by the SuperContest consensus.  Take the Titans. 3.5 is a tough spread to cover for a slightly above average NFL team playing @ slightly below average NFL team. 

Bengals @ Redskins

I think the consensus has this one nailed.  RGIII is too big in most minds.  They lost to the Rams last week.  Don't give them the extra 0.5 against a sneaky good Bengals team!

Jets @ Dolphins

dolphins DOLPHINS Doll Fins!  The Jets is a trendy pick.  No one thinks the Dolphins should be in ANY game.  Jets D, Marky plays decent, Jets win by 10, right? WRONG!

Chiefs @ Saints

Not many picks on either side for this game - I like the Chiefs a lot.  Most are expecting the Saints to wake up.  They might, but they won't cover a touchdown plus.

Jaguars @ Colts

The Colts are also a trendy pick.  Luck looked better last week.  Gabbert looked worse and got "hurt."  The majority lean Colts.  I lean Jaguars.

Eagles @ Cardinals

THE TENDIEST PICK OF THE WEEK IS...THE CARDINALS.  If the Eagles turn it over 3+ times again, the Cardinals will cover.  The Eagles won't turn it over 3+ times again.

You already know how I feel about the Texans/Broncos and the Steelers/Raiders.

Packers @ Seahawks

The Packers pick is one people can't stay away from.  Even if you know the Seahawks are great at home, you can't stay away from Rodgers and the Pack covering 3 against ANY average team ANYWHERE.  I lean Seahawks, but let's hope I'M WRONG!

With that, let's see what THE BISNESS went with for the week:

Herby Hamster 2,0,0 Ravens -3
Willy Walrus 2,0,0 Eagles -4
Freddy Ferret 0,2,0 Falcons +3,5
Peter Penguin 0,2,0 Packers -3
Bucky Bluebird 0,2,0 Panthers PK...Bucky Bluebird 0,3,0

...And what the "others" have for the week:


TEAM WHODID., 6, 3, 1, DAL, MIN, NYJ, BAL, GB
NOW 100% SWEAT FREE., 4, 6, 0, DAL, KC, IND, ARI, SEA
SIMBOTICS ., 4, 6, 0, CAR, NYJ, ARI, HOU, BAL
FEZZIK ., 2, 8, 0, CAR, DAL, CIN, MIA, ARI

There's 8 Home underdogs this week.  It's a weird week no matter how you look at it. Find a few you like, do your research, and hit em hard!  This is the WRONG week to think you know it all and try to hit 12/16!

Herby's LOCK OF THE WEEK!

Ignore the brevity of his analysis this week.  Herby Hamster: 15-3-1 all-time against SuperContest Spreads - ENOUGH SAID!

"New England and Baltimore are both coming off Week 2 losses (game and spread). There is no way Brady's Pats will start 1-2, right? “NOT SO FAST!” as my boy Lee Corso says.

Take the Ravens -3 at home.

Brady is the better QB no matter what Joe Flacco said during the offseason. However, I'm very impressed with Baltimore’s offense. They just have too many weapons on offense: Ray Rice, bruiser Anquan Boldin, speedster Torrey Smith, and Dennis Pitta. Remember, Aaron Hernandez is out. Yes, Vegas knows this, but do they understand how much this helps the Ravens? Baltimore is one of the most physical defenses in the league. With only one dynamic Tight End out there, Ed Reed will be able to spy and lock onto Gronkowski every play. Will Wes Welker climb out of the doghouse this week?

This game means absolutely the same to both teams, as each team is a Super Bowl contender and is 1-1. Remember, last year if Lee Evans doesn’t drop that touchdown pass in the AFC title game, Ray Lewis’s knuckles would be even bumpier. Baltimore outplayed New England in every aspect of that game.

Take the Ravens, and don’t sweat it!"

Come back Saturday evening/Sunday morning for the rest of THE BISNESS's picks as well as a biased analysis of the consensus SuperContest picks.

Week 3 SuperContest Guessing of the Lines

The LVH posted the Week 3 lines for the SuperContest late afternoon on Wednesday.  Once again, I missed 1 line by a lot and 2 more lines by about a field goal.  Let’s take a look at the matchups, my guesses, and the SuperContest lines for Week 3 

 

Away	Home	Guess	SC Line
Giants	Panthers	Giants -1.5	PK
Rams	Bears	Bears -7	Bears -7.5
Bills	Browns	Bills -3	Bills -3
Bucs	Cowboys	Cowboys -4.5	Cowboys -7
Jags	Colts	Colts -4	Colts -3
Jets	Dolphins	Jets -4.5	Jets -3
49ers	Vikes	49ers -12.5	49ers -7
Chiefs	Saints	Saints -7	Saints -8.5
Lions	Titans	Lions -2.5	Lions -3.5
Bengals	Redskins	Redskins -3	Redskins -3.5
Eagles	Cards	Eagles -3	Eagles -4
Falcons	Chargers	Chargers -3	Chargers -3.5
Texans	Broncos	Broncos -1	Broncos +2.5
Steelers	Raiders	Steelers -7	Steelers -4
Pats	Ravens	Ravens -3	Ravens -3
Packers	Seahawks	Packers -4.5	Packers -3

 

49ers @ Vikings

 

There doesn’t appear to be any major injuries on either side.  The 49ers look unbeatable, and the Vikings try to lose every week.  They should start patenting some of the ways they find to lose games.  So, why is this spread not at least 10?  All I can say is Vegas must have some insider knowledge that tells them the Vikings are going to keep this game close.  It’s most likely a combination of a West coast team that plays home games outdoors traveling east to play a dome team.  Stats against the spread get whacky when teams cross 2+ time zones and play teams with… excess belly-button lint.  Seriously though, history has shown this type of travel and game time difference (I believe the 49ers usually play 1 their time and will be playing instead at 10 AM their time on Sunday) takes teams out of their element.  Nonetheless, the majority of public bettors will ignore this and take the 49ers -7.  The ones that don’t are Vikings fans.  If you’re picking this game, sid with the professionals and TAKE THE VIKINGS +7.  AND WHATEVER HAPPENS,  KNOW YOU MADE THE RIGHT PICK!

 

Texans @ Broncos

 

The Texans covered the spread easily both of the 1^st 2 weeks.  They have a very good offense and a very good defense.  The Broncos played very well in Week 1.  In Week 2, 2 major offensive weaknesses got exposed by an above average defense. 

 

1. It’s impossible to implement a Peyton Manning offense with a new team in the amount of time that has elapsed between Manning joining the Broncos and now. 

 

2.  Although I don’t think it’s as big of an issue as most people perceive right now, Peyton’s arm has lost a little zip.

 

Credit the Falcons defensive scheme and execution of that scheme for exposing these weaknesses.  The Falcons were showing Peyton organized chaos on many of the Broncos snaps.  This made it difficult for Peyton.  He audibled to set his offense to run a play that would work against what he saw, but by the time the ball was snapped the defense looked completely different than it did when he audibled.  Peyton would have handled this much better if he were playing with the same team he had been playing with for 5 years.  Also, if his arm strength hadn’t declined some of the balls that got intercepted maybe have just been batted down and some of the balls that fell incomplete may have scooted by defenders and been caught by Denver receivers.  Did anyone notice early in the game when Peyton WAS completing passes to HIS OWN TEAM that Jacob Tamme was often on the receiving end?  Tamme was teammates with Manning in Indianapolis.  Those two understand what each other is going to do depending on what the defense throws at them.  When Peyton gets uncomfortable, he finds receivers he understands and who understand him.  In Indy, he had a handful of them.  In Denver, he has just 1…for now.

 

Favoring the Texans in Denver tells me Vegas is going to keep favoring the Texans by more and more until they get a good feel for JUST HOW GOOD the Texans are.  Vegas cannot allow teams to keep crushing spreads or bettors will take those teams every week.  I THINK Vegas over-corrected on this one, though.  Don’t get me wrong.  There’s going to continue to be inconsistencies on offense for the Broncos throughout most, if not all, of this season.  If you look at last week, however, Manning threw 4 1^st half picks, and the Broncos still managed to only lose by 6.  Like the Texans, the Broncos also have a very solid defense.  Manning will not have crowd noise to deal with this week, he will be better prepared to face some of the looks he saw last week that future opponents (Texans this week) will be trying to emulate, and his defense will keep him in the game 90% of the time.  He won’t be perfect, but you’ll see vast improvements over last week.  TAKE THE BRONCOS AT HOME.

 

Steelers @ Raiders

 

The Raiders are 0-2-0 Against The Spread this year.  You know how I know that?  BECAUSE WE PICKED THEM BOTH TIMES AND LOST!  Last week, you saw Reggie Bush destroy a very respectable Raiders defense.  Maybe you think the Raiders defense is especially susceptible to shifty running backs.  Maybe you think it was just one of those fluke weeks where a good defense has a bad day.  I support the latter, but either way it doesn’t matter this week against the Steelers.  With Rashard Mendenhall listed as doubtful (not that he is a super-shifty RB), there’s no reason the Raiders should have trouble defending the ground game.  Maybe it’s just because I don’t follow the Steelers that closely, but I can’t name the Steelers running back right now.  Can you?  Is he any good?  In addition to Mendenhall being doubtful, Polamalu, Sanders, Harrison, Wallace, and Heath Miller are all questionable for Week 3.  I definitely think we’re seeing these injury statuses, AND a matchup deficiency for the Steelers, affecting this line.  TAKE THE RAIDERS.  I’m predicting a game-winning field goal by Seabass at the horn.

 

Well, that’s it for the missing of the line guessing and the explaining of the line missing.  Last week, my picks of the Colts and Seahawks panned out, and the Browns/Bengals turned out to be a wash.  Let’s see if the Raiders, Broncos, and Vikings can pull through for me this week.

 

As a bonus, I’m going to provide you with Bucky Bluebird’s Week 3 pick since the dumbass (sorry Bucky) just HAD to pick the Thursday game.  Bucky is taking PANTHERS PK tonight… but what the hell does he know?  He’s 0-2 and must just be giddy to get to that 0-3 mark before Freddy and Peter have a chance to catch him.  Again, I apologize Bucky.  ;)

 

Also, don’t miss Herby’s LOCK OF THE WEEK, which will be available sometime Friday evening, followed by the rest of the picks of THE BISNESS and the consensus SuperContest picks that will be posted over the weekend.

 

GO CAM!

Week 2 Analysis: LVH SuperContest

Week 2 went slightly better for SuperContest contestants, but it’s certainly nothing to be proud of.  Overall, there were 1,768 correct picks and 1,767 incorrect picks.  There were some ties as well with the Bengals beating the Browns by the exact spread of 7.  Although contestants finished a hair above 50% this week, if contestants were to flat bet all of their picks from Week 2 they would still have gotten crushed by the juice.  I had a Samsonite moment with one of my Week 2 predictions.  I said contestants would go sub-50% for the 2^nd week in a row…I WAS WAY OFF!

 

Let’s take a look at some things worth noting from Week 2 and how they might affect the Week 3 lines and Week 3 picks.

 

1.  5 of 6 Home underdogs covered their spreads.  Well, to be more specific, all 5 of those also won their games outright.  I figured 3 or 4 Home underdogs would cover, but this is crazy!  Obviously the only one we picked didn’t come close to winning or covering.  Don’t expect this to happen every week.  Through 2 weeks, 73% of Home underdogs have covered.  Vegas will start to slowly, subtly adjust their lines to shift the splits back to 50/50.  In the next 2 or 3 weeks, keep track of how many Home underdogs cover.  I would expect it to dip under 50%.  Also, keep your eye out for lines where you think Vegas has been a little too generous to the Road favorite.  There’s going to be some value to be had.

So far this year:

Totals
W	L	T		%
8	3	0	Home Dog	73%
11	8	1	Home Fav.	58%
8	11	1	Road Dog	43%
3	8	0	Road Fav.	27%
0	1	0	Home PK	0%
1	0	0	Road PK	100%
14	16	1	Favs	47%
16	14	1	Dogs	53%
19	11	1	Home	63%
11	19	1	Road	37%
1	1	0	PK	50%
31	31	2	ALL	50%

 

2.  8 teams (Cards, Bucs, Ravens, Texans, Rams, Chargers, 49ers, & Falcons) have covered each of the 1^st 2 weeks, and 8 teams (Chiefs, Vikings, Raiders, Giants, Eagles, Saints, Titans, & Lions) have not covered each of the 1^st 2 weeks.  In Week 3, the 49ers play @ the Vikings, and the Eagles play @ the Cards.  It will be interesting to see how this affects the lines for these 2 games.  I’ve written down my line guesses and glanced at the Week 3 lines, and one of these two matchups is throwing some major red flags.  I’ll elaborate on that in my Week 3 Guessing of the Lines post.

 

3.  Herby and Willy are both 2-0.  Bucky, Freddy, and Peter are 0-2.  What does this tell you?  Herby and Willy will go 17-0-0 and the rest 0-17-0!  Now you know who to follow and who to fade!

Herby Hamster	1-0-0
Willy Walrus	1-0-0
Bucky Bluebird	0-1-0
Freddy Ferret	0-1-0
Peter Penguin	0-1-0

Overall

 

Herby Hamster	2-0-0
Willy Walrus	2-0-0
Bucky Bluebird	0-2-0
Freddy Ferret	0-2-0
Peter Penguin	0-2-0

 

4.  There were 14 contestants who got all 5 correct in Week 2, up from 10 last week.  This number still should be higher.  The best thing about us sucking is that the majority of people around us still suck too.  After 2 weeks, THE BISNESS sits tied for 449^th out of 745.  This number is bad, but it could be much worse.  The key to winning/placing in the SuperContest is to avoid the 1s and 0s.  The benchmark for placing is to stay at or above 60%.  If you avoid the 0s and 1s, you’re only ever 1 or 2 solid weeks away from getting to 60%.  To give you some perspective, through Week 9 last year, THE BISNESS had 21 points.  That’s barely over 2 per week!  We still were able to get on a roll and finish in the cash.

 

Let’s take a look at how some of the big boys fared in Week 2 and how they sit overall.

 

THEBISNESS	2-3-0
Cousin Sal	2-2-1
Fezzik	1-4-0
Millman	2-3-0
Simmons	3-2-0

Overall

 

THEBISNESS	4-6-0
Cousin Sal	6-3-1
Fezzik	2-8-0
Millman	4-6-0
Simmons	4-6-0

Steve Fezzik is 2-8-0 through 2 weeks.  Steve Fezzik won this thing 2 years in a row!  What is going on?

Millman and Simmons are lying in the weeds with THE BISNESS at 4 points.  Don’t expect this to continue too much longer.  There will be plenty of 3s and 4s and an occasional 5 in the near future.

Cousin Sal manufactured 2.5 this week for a very respectable 2 week total of 6.5.  65% WILL PLACE YOU TOP 5 EVERY YEAR IN THIS CONTEST!  Don’t tank, Cous!

 

The LVH should post the Week 3 SuperContest lines Wednesday evening.  Stop by late Wednesday night or Thursday for the Week 3 Guessing of the Lines post, followed by what should be the highest priority on your list, Herby’s Friday night LOCK OF THE WEEK post, and Saturday/Sunday’s picks of THE BISNESS and analysis of the consensus picks.

 

Buy By for now!