Week 2 Analysis: LVH SuperContest

Week 2 went slightly better for SuperContest contestants, but it’s certainly nothing to be proud of.  Overall, there were 1,768 correct picks and 1,767 incorrect picks.  There were some ties as well with the Bengals beating the Browns by the exact spread of 7.  Although contestants finished a hair above 50% this week, if contestants were to flat bet all of their picks from Week 2 they would still have gotten crushed by the juice.  I had a Samsonite moment with one of my Week 2 predictions.  I said contestants would go sub-50% for the 2^nd week in a row…I WAS WAY OFF!

 

Let’s take a look at some things worth noting from Week 2 and how they might affect the Week 3 lines and Week 3 picks.

 

1.  5 of 6 Home underdogs covered their spreads.  Well, to be more specific, all 5 of those also won their games outright.  I figured 3 or 4 Home underdogs would cover, but this is crazy!  Obviously the only one we picked didn’t come close to winning or covering.  Don’t expect this to happen every week.  Through 2 weeks, 73% of Home underdogs have covered.  Vegas will start to slowly, subtly adjust their lines to shift the splits back to 50/50.  In the next 2 or 3 weeks, keep track of how many Home underdogs cover.  I would expect it to dip under 50%.  Also, keep your eye out for lines where you think Vegas has been a little too generous to the Road favorite.  There’s going to be some value to be had.

So far this year:

Totals
W	L	T		%
8	3	0	Home Dog	73%
11	8	1	Home Fav.	58%
8	11	1	Road Dog	43%
3	8	0	Road Fav.	27%
0	1	0	Home PK	0%
1	0	0	Road PK	100%
14	16	1	Favs	47%
16	14	1	Dogs	53%
19	11	1	Home	63%
11	19	1	Road	37%
1	1	0	PK	50%
31	31	2	ALL	50%

 

2.  8 teams (Cards, Bucs, Ravens, Texans, Rams, Chargers, 49ers, & Falcons) have covered each of the 1^st 2 weeks, and 8 teams (Chiefs, Vikings, Raiders, Giants, Eagles, Saints, Titans, & Lions) have not covered each of the 1^st 2 weeks.  In Week 3, the 49ers play @ the Vikings, and the Eagles play @ the Cards.  It will be interesting to see how this affects the lines for these 2 games.  I’ve written down my line guesses and glanced at the Week 3 lines, and one of these two matchups is throwing some major red flags.  I’ll elaborate on that in my Week 3 Guessing of the Lines post.

 

3.  Herby and Willy are both 2-0.  Bucky, Freddy, and Peter are 0-2.  What does this tell you?  Herby and Willy will go 17-0-0 and the rest 0-17-0!  Now you know who to follow and who to fade!

Herby Hamster	1-0-0
Willy Walrus	1-0-0
Bucky Bluebird	0-1-0
Freddy Ferret	0-1-0
Peter Penguin	0-1-0

Overall

 

Herby Hamster	2-0-0
Willy Walrus	2-0-0
Bucky Bluebird	0-2-0
Freddy Ferret	0-2-0
Peter Penguin	0-2-0

 

4.  There were 14 contestants who got all 5 correct in Week 2, up from 10 last week.  This number still should be higher.  The best thing about us sucking is that the majority of people around us still suck too.  After 2 weeks, THE BISNESS sits tied for 449^th out of 745.  This number is bad, but it could be much worse.  The key to winning/placing in the SuperContest is to avoid the 1s and 0s.  The benchmark for placing is to stay at or above 60%.  If you avoid the 0s and 1s, you’re only ever 1 or 2 solid weeks away from getting to 60%.  To give you some perspective, through Week 9 last year, THE BISNESS had 21 points.  That’s barely over 2 per week!  We still were able to get on a roll and finish in the cash.

 

Let’s take a look at how some of the big boys fared in Week 2 and how they sit overall.

 

THEBISNESS	2-3-0
Cousin Sal	2-2-1
Fezzik	1-4-0
Millman	2-3-0
Simmons	3-2-0

Overall

 

THEBISNESS	4-6-0
Cousin Sal	6-3-1
Fezzik	2-8-0
Millman	4-6-0
Simmons	4-6-0

Steve Fezzik is 2-8-0 through 2 weeks.  Steve Fezzik won this thing 2 years in a row!  What is going on?

Millman and Simmons are lying in the weeds with THE BISNESS at 4 points.  Don’t expect this to continue too much longer.  There will be plenty of 3s and 4s and an occasional 5 in the near future.

Cousin Sal manufactured 2.5 this week for a very respectable 2 week total of 6.5.  65% WILL PLACE YOU TOP 5 EVERY YEAR IN THIS CONTEST!  Don’t tank, Cous!

 

The LVH should post the Week 3 SuperContest lines Wednesday evening.  Stop by late Wednesday night or Thursday for the Week 3 Guessing of the Lines post, followed by what should be the highest priority on your list, Herby’s Friday night LOCK OF THE WEEK post, and Saturday/Sunday’s picks of THE BISNESS and analysis of the consensus picks.

 

Buy By for now!