Week 1 LVH SuperContest Picks of THEBISNESS, Along with Last Year's Splits

Splits for all 2011/2012 NFL SuperContest spreads

Totals
W	L	T		%
41	35	3	Home Dog	53.8%
78	86	8	Home Fav.	47.7%
86	78	8	Road Dog	52.3%
35	41	3	Road Fav.	46.2%
2	2	0	Home PK	50.0%
2	2	0	Road PK	50.0%
113	127	11	Favs	47.2%
127	113	11	Dogs	52.8%
119	121	11	Home	49.6%
121	119	11	Road	50.4%
4	4	0	PK	50.0%
244	244	22	ALL	50.0%

To help you understand these statistics, there were 89 games in which the Home team was the underdog. Obviously, there were also 89 games in which the Away team was the favorite.  41 times the Home underdog covered, 35 times the Road favorite covered, and there were 3 games where the final result was exactly the same as the spread.  As you can see, Home underdogs covered more spreads than any other single split.  Don't expect this to change this season. 

So, why does this tend to happen from year to year? 

Teams play better at home for a variety of reasons: the crowd is behind them, they're sleeping in their own beds the night before (Well, at least they have the option of doing so.  We know all too well the "sleeping" habits of professional athletes often stray far from the norm.), they're accustomed to the playing surface and typical weather conditions, etc.

Why doesn't Vegas compensate for this and try to make it so that just as many Road favorites cover as do Home underdogs?

Because they don't need to.  Vegas knows the Home underdogs will cover more often, and they know as a whole bettors will pick Road favorites to cover spreads more often.  BINGO for Vegas!  Most public bettors don't take into account the home field advantage, or they don't take it into account as much as they should, anyway.  They see an above average team playing @ a below average team's stadium, and they see a spread between -3 & +3 and bet the better team.  The below average bettor thinks the more talented team can win regardless of the location of the game.  History has proven this is not true.  If you don't believe me, take note of the 5 NFL games this weekend in which the Home team is the underdog.  There is a very good chance 3 of those 5 Home underdogs cover.  Granted, it's only 1 week's worth of results, so you could see more Road favorites cover for a weekend or two, but by season's end more Home underdogs will cover than Road favorites.  TRUST ME! 


Splits for all of THEBISNESS's 2011/2012 SuperContest picks

Totals
W	L	T		%
6	1	0	Home Dog	85.7%
19	12	2	Home Fav.	60.6%
10	9	2	Road Dog	52.4%
13	8	2	Road Fav.	60.9%
0	1	0	Home PK	0.0%
0	0	0	Road PK	-
32	20	4	Favs	60.7%
16	10	2	Dogs	60.7%
25	13	2	Home	65.0%
23	17	4	Road	56.8%
0	1	0	PK	0.0%
48	31	6	ALL	60.0%

Obviously, when you're picking at 60%, as THEBISNESS did last year, all of your splits are likely going to be above 50%.  As you can see, ours were.   You can also see our best split was also the best split of the SuperContest as a whole, HOME UNDERDOGS!  It's weird how that happens, right?!  So, obviously it would make sense for us to pick at least a couple Home underdogs with our Week 1 picks, right?  HAHA! NOT THIS WEEK!  That being said, here are the Week 1 picks of THEBISNESS...



Bucky Bluebird - Raiders PK
Freddy Ferret -     Lions -7
Herby Hamster -  Jets -2.5
Peter Penguin -    Saints -7
Willy Walrus -     Patriots -5.5



Tomorrow, I'll post the cumulative pick totals for SuperContest contestants, and we'll take a look at how THEBISNESS's picks align with everyone else's.  Every week, there will be certain games where most contestants favor one side and very few favor the other.  I'll highlight these lopsided games for Week 1 and give an explanation of why I think this is the case.


Happy picking!  See ya tomorrow.