Week 1 Analysis: LVH SuperContest

Week 1 was catastrophic for SuperContest contestants as a whole.  Overall, contestants picked spreads at just over 44%, 1,648 correct picks and 2,072 incorrect picks.  This would have been the worst pick percentage of any week last year!  I've heard a few mumbles over the last few weeks.."The first few weeks is the best time to bet football!  Vegas doesn't know anything yet!"  Incorrect, fellas!  The gap between what they know and what you know is larger now than it will be at any point throughout the season.

Maybe instead of picking the spreads for the SuperContest, THEBISNESS should make 5 predictions ABOUT the SuperContest. 

In Week 1:

I said 3 of the 5 Home underdogs would cover.  They did.

I said Vegas whiffed on the Panthers/Bucs line.  They did.

I said overall contestants would pick sub-50%.  They did.

Yet, THEBISNESS went 2-3.  (By the way, feel free to point out all of the predictions I make that end up being completely wrong.  I tend to forget about those ones.  ;-)) 

Let's lay out some stats from Week 1:

THEBISNESS	2-3-0
Fezzik	1-4-0
Millman	2-3-0
Simmons	1-4-0

There's nothing like sucking but trying to make your team look like you don't suck by stressing moral victories.  These 3 people aren't the only fairly famous contestants participating this year.  I'm sure there's many more.  These are just the 3 I know about off the top of my head.

Individual records of THEBISNESS:

Bucky Bluebird 0-1-0
Freddy Ferret 0-1-0
Herby Hamster 1-0-0
Peter Penguin 0-1-0
Willy Walrus 1-0-0

Herby Hamster stays HOT from last year.  C'mon people, he is 14-3-1 in his last 18 SuperContest picks.  I know he's only picking 1 per week, but still, that's unbelievable.  If you didn't follow this guy in Week 1, I would suggest following him for the rest of the NFL season.  His pick will be available Friday or Saturday every week, and HE WILL MAKE YOU MONEY!


Perfect 5s in Week 1: 10

Only 10 out of 745 entrants got all 5 correct.  (Well, I should say 744 since 1 bozo forgot to put his picks in for Week 1.  I can only imagine he was in Vegas for 4 days, got hammered, saw this contest, paid his $1,500 thinking he would be able to make his picks from home, only to find out you need a proxy to enter your picks for you each week at the LVH Sportsbook in Vegas.)  A 5-spread parlay pays roughly 25/1, so it follows that we can expect, during an average week, about 1 in 25 contestants, so 29 or 30, will have a perfect score.  This just hammers home the point that it was a dreadful week overall.

Contestants who went 2-3 like us are tied for 279th place after Week 1.  So picking 40%(awful) in Week 1 put us above 62.5%(respectable) of contestants. 

Ok, the horse is dead...everyone sucked in Week 1

So, what did we learn from Week 1 then?

1. Home underdogs cover more spreads than Road favorites.
2. Herby Hamster covers SuperContest spreads at a higher percentage than Lebron James shoots free throws.
3. Vegas knows more than most people think in Week 1.  Remember this next year.
4. The awful overall performances support the notion that the SuperContest field is watered down. 


Stop by tomorrow as I give you the Week 2 Guessing of the Lines